Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-04-06 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-04-06
0 activated plays
Gap rows 285
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-04-07 Older: 2026-04-05

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Freddie Freeman

Play

LAD vs TOR | Max Scherzer

Value Score 31.8
Odds / Gap +495 / +4.97%
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.917x

Value Rank #2

Yandy Díaz

Play

TB vs CHC | Jameson Taillon

Value Score 28.6
Odds / Gap +575 / +6.01%
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.025x

Value Rank #3

Brandon Nimmo

Lean

TEX vs SEA | Logan Gilbert

Value Score 25.1
Odds / Gap +515 / +4.45%
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.960x

Value Rank #4

Christian Yelich

Lean

MIL vs BOS | Brayan Bello

Value Score 21.2
Odds / Gap +485 / +3.19%
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.989x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs MIL | Brandon Woodruff | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+7.37%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+7.37%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+7.37%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.0
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs CHC | Jameson Taillon | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.58%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+6.58%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+6.58%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+6.50%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1405
+6.56%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+6.45%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1490
+6.40%
9.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.11%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+6.11%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+4.77%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-9.33%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs CHC | Jameson Taillon | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+6.01%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+5.89%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+5.89%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+5.81%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+5.81%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+5.71%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs MIL | Brandon Woodruff | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1015
+5.78%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+5.70%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+5.70%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+5.67%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+5.58%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.58%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+5.59%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+5.53%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+5.46%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs BOS | Brayan Bello | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+5.57%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+5.46%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+5.40%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.7
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.46%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 21.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+5.46%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+3.75%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-8.28%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+5.36%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+5.29%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+5.29%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs CHC | Jameson Taillon | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+5.14%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+5.14%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+5.14%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs BOS | Brayan Bello | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+5.14%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+5.14%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.14%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.07%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+5.07%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+5.00%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+5.00%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+5.03%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+4.94%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+4.94%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+4.97%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+4.83%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+4.69%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+4.95%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+4.88%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+4.88%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+4.55%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+4.44%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+4.44%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.45%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+4.45%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+4.32%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+4.18%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+4.23%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+4.12%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+4.12%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+4.09%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+3.96%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+3.84%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+4.05%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+4.05%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+3.97%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+3.80%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+3.80%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+3.71%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+3.66%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+3.54%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+3.54%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+3.65%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1240
+3.58%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+3.58%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+3.62%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+3.52%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+3.52%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+3.51%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+3.39%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+3.39%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+3.46%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+3.39%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+3.39%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -960
+3.35%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1020
+3.35%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+3.26%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs MIL | Brandon Woodruff | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
+3.31%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
+3.19%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+3.19%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+3.23%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+3.14%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+3.14%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs BOS | Brayan Bello | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.19%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+3.19%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+3.04%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+3.04%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+3.14%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+3.01%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+2.88%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+3.11%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+3.11%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+3.02%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.06%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+3.06%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+2.95%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+2.95%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1480
+3.02%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+2.87%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1565
+2.82%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.01%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+3.01%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+1.73%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-6.07%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+2.92%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+2.78%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.78%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+2.78%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+2.68%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+2.68%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+2.78%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +685 / U -1040
+2.78%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+2.70%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.54%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+2.54%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
+1.51%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-5.89%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+2.43%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+2.30%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+2.18%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.1
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +665 / U -995
+2.37%
12.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +660 / U -940
+2.28%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +660 / U --
+2.28%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs MIL | Brandon Woodruff | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+2.31%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+2.18%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+2.18%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+2.28%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+2.18%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+2.18%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+2.19%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+2.03%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+1.98%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 106.6
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+2.06%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+2.06%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+2.06%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +875 / U -1385
+2.04%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +865 / U --
+1.94%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1465
+1.88%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.4
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+2.03%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+1.85%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+1.67%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.99%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+1.99%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+1.91%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+1.91%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.98%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+1.98%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+1.89%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+1.89%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.90%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+1.90%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.74%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+1.58%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.90%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+1.90%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+1.90%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+1.82%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+1.69%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+1.57%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+1.57%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+1.52%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+1.39%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.39%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+1.47%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+1.35%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+1.35%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.41%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.10%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.10%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+1.38%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+1.22%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.22%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+1.38%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+1.22%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+1.17%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.1
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.17%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.17%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.17%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.9
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -500
+1.06%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -535
+0.14%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-4.39%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.02%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.02%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.02%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+0.92%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.75%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+0.58%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.76%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+0.76%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.60%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+0.44%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+0.69%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+0.53%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+0.36%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs CHC | Jameson Taillon | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+0.69%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +365 / U -470
-0.46%
20.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-3.98%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+0.68%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+0.38%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+0.38%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -475
+0.61%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-0.25%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-4.05%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+0.33%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-0.63%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-3.72%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs CHC | Jameson Taillon | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.04%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.54%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.46%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.2
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
-0.08%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
-0.25%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
-0.42%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-0.10%
19.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-1.04%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-3.29%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.11%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.11%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.11%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.5
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
-0.12%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-0.25%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
-0.38%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.38%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.34%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-3.01%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
-0.48%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
-0.76%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
-0.76%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-0.49%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.65%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-0.81%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
-0.53%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
-0.69%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
-0.86%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
-0.61%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
-0.75%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-0.75%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
-0.61%
15.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -650
-0.89%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +495 / U --
-0.89%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +815 / U -1250
-0.66%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +805 / U -1320
-0.78%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +805 / U --
-0.78%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 106.5
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -525
-0.71%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -560
-1.56%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-2.71%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -505
-0.79%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.00%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.22%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-0.91%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-1.10%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-1.29%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.00%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-1.21%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.42%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
-1.11%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-1.26%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
-1.42%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.14%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-1.35%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.56%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-1.22%
15.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-1.86%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-2.26%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.23%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-1.95%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.13%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-1.25%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-1.43%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.62%
18.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-1.29%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-1.61%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-1.61%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-1.32%
22.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.67%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-1.92%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -510
-1.40%
19.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +410 / U -545
-1.82%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
-2.01%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.52%
20.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.61%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.74%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%