Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	606	62	155	15	5	.280	.332	.448	.780
2025	504	53	133	11	2	.287	.331	.409	.740
2026	378	31	73	11	1	.213	.275	.350	.625
7 Seasons	3327	369	826	81	19	.271	.322	.408	.730

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

42

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

46

Defense3 metrics

18

Speed1 metrics

25

Plate skills10 metrics

58

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17

xwOBA preseason	0.333
xwOBA current pace	0.299
xwOBA rolling p50	0.311
Observed weight	64%

xwOBA

0.287 0.298 0.311 0.324 0.335

wOBA

0.282 0.296 0.312 0.327 0.341

ISO

0.124 0.136 0.149 0.163 0.175

K%

13.5% 14.5% 15.5% 16.6% 17.5%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%3.8%

30

Exit velocity90.2

77

Hard-hit%40.9%

58

xBA0.289

20

xSLG0.440

25

xwOBA0.299

42 -31 vs proj

BB%6.5%

25

Bat speed69.4

45

K%14.9%

87

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Strength82.2 · 3B

16

Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B

28

Range Runs-4.8 · 3B

10

Baserunning · percentile strip

Sprint Speed26.4 · 3B

25

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-17

Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.8% · rebadged research

83

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7% · rebadged research

55

Correct Decisions69.8% · rebadged research

84

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107

80

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline

58

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample

13

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303 · validated thin sample

10

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample

18

Resists FastballwOBA 0.326 · validated

74

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.307 · validated

100

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Alec Bohm's tools (89) outpace production (82) by 7 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+19.2° Current -3° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

213 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.5σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.312

xwOBA (deserved)0.299

Bohm’s wOBA sits at 0.312, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.299 — a gap of 0.013, -0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 397 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Garcia, Maikel KC · R	0.81	Barrel rateStrikeout rate	Player · Projection
Kelly, Carson CHC · R	0.80	In-zone contactSweet-spot rate	Player · Projection
Cortes, Carlos ATH · L	0.75	Hard-hit rateAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection
Contreras, William MIL · R	0.69	In-zone contactIsolated power	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	4	2026-07-04	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.332 xwOBA \| 14 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs CIN1 HR \| 1 RBI / 8 Ch \| 1 E	1-4 \| HR, K, RBI
2026-04-20 @ CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, K
2026-04-17 vs ATL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K
2026-04-15 vs CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-3
2026-04-14 vs CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| K

Age	29
Height	6' 4"
Weight	218 lb
Debut	2020-08-13

xwOBA Δ	-0.032
wOBA Δ	-0.020

Hitter Projections 20260.332 xwOBA \| 14 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs CIN1 HR \| 1 RBI / 8 Ch \| 1 E	1-4 \| HR, K, RBI
2026-04-20 @ CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, K
2026-04-17 vs ATL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K
2026-04-15 vs CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-3
2026-04-14 vs CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| K

Alec Bohm

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail