Free-source markets • Anchor readiness • Line shopping
Market Watch
Before judging a number, inspect the market behind it.
Market Watch separates consensus-backed rows from sparse single-book rows. The goal is not to declare something mispriced; it is to decide whether the market is strong enough to support that conversation.
Snapshot
20260716
19%
consensus-backed
Tracked
175
Anchor-ready
34
Input rows
242
Updated
2026-07-16 12:00 UTC
Consensus proxy 34
Single-book only 5
Insufficient 136
Sparse rows still matter for price shopping. They should not be treated as proof of closing-line value.
Lane Health
2026-07-16
Palantir
9378 props
Brier 0.125
ECE 0.010
14d stable
Fangorn
9378 props
Brier 0.125
ECE 0.011
14d stable
Valinor
3783 props
Brier 0.119
ECE 0.006
14d stable
Palantir
453 props
Brier 0.245
ECE 0.004
sample building
Fangorn
18 props
Brier 0.243
ECE 0.080
sample building
Valinor
32 props
Brier 0.236
ECE 0.220
sample building
Palantir
3223 props
Brier 0.240
ECE 0.103
sample building
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
137 props
Brier 0.153
ECE 0.025
sample building
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
328 props
Brier 0.265
ECE 0.083
sample building
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Rolling Accountability
Recent Market Quality
How often the free-source market has enough book coverage to support a cautious consensus-style anchor.
Days covered
28
| Date | Tracked | Anchor-Ready | Consensus Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20260716 | 175 | 34 | 19.4% |
| 20260714 | 71 | 71 | 100.0% |
| 20260712 | 2692 | 592 | 22.0% |
| 20260711 | 2430 | 591 | 24.3% |
| 20260710 | 1858 | 595 | 32.0% |
| 20260709 | 1946 | 551 | 28.3% |
| 20260708 | 2077 | 420 | 20.2% |
Structure Report
Which prop lanes are healthiest?
Each lane is judged by source depth, current consensus rate, and stability versus its recent average.
Prop Lane
Total Bases
27%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Home Run
22%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Strikeouts
13%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Hits
0%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Pitcher Outs
0%
latest consensus rate
Coverage Mix
Tracked market families
The page is only as strong as the markets it can see. This mix keeps coverage limits visible.
Anchor-Ready
Consensus-Proxy Markets
These rows have enough complete free-source book coverage to support a cautious CLV-style anchor.
| Player | Market | Anchor | Best Over | Best Under | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christian Scott
NYM vs PHI
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 46.1% Under 53.9% |
+106
DraftKings | Spread +6
|
-128
FanDuel | Spread +7
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Aaron Nola
PHI vs NYM
|
Strikeouts 5.5
2/2 complete books | BetMGM, FanDuel
|
Over 43.3% Under 56.7% |
+122
FanDuel | Spread +17
|
-145
BetMGM | Spread +11
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bo Bichette
NYM vs PHI
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 9.4% Under 90.6% |
+725
DraftKings | Spread +5
|
-1060
DraftKings | Spread +65
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bo Bichette
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 82.5% Under 17.5% |
-490
FanDuel | Spread +45
|
+435
DraftKings | Spread +60
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bo Bichette
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 64.9% Under 35.1% |
-195
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
+175
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bo Bichette
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 2.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 41.4% Under 58.6% |
+135
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-145
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Brett Baty
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 66.6% Under 33.4% |
-210
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
+190
DraftKings | Spread +15
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Brett Baty
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 46.3% Under 53.7% |
+110
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
-120
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Brett Baty
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 2.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 27.4% Under 71.8% |
+265
BetMGM | Spread +0
|
-255
DraftKings | Spread +0
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Francisco Alvarez
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 62.6% Under 37.4% |
-175
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
+160
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Francisco Alvarez
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 47.7% Under 52.3% |
+105
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-115
DraftKings | Spread +5
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Francisco Alvarez
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 2.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 27.0% Under 71.8% |
+270
BetMGM | Spread +0
|
-255
DraftKings | Spread +0
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Francisco Lindor
NYM vs PHI
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 16.9% Under 83.1% |
+420
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
-520
DraftKings | Spread +35
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Francisco Lindor
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 80.6% Under 19.4% |
-430
FanDuel | Spread +35
|
+385
DraftKings | Spread +50
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Francisco Lindor
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 67.3% Under 32.7% |
-215
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
+195
DraftKings | Spread +15
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Francisco Lindor
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 2.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 45.5% Under 54.5% |
+115
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-125
DraftKings | Spread +5
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jorge Polanco
NYM vs PHI
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 14.4% Under 85.6% |
+495
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
-635
DraftKings | Spread +40
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jorge Polanco
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 74.5% Under 25.5% |
-305
FanDuel | Spread +15
|
+275
DraftKings | Spread +25
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jorge Polanco
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 59.5% Under 40.5% |
-155
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
+140
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jorge Polanco
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 2.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 37.0% Under 63.0% |
+160
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-175
DraftKings | Spread +15
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Juan Soto
NYM vs PHI
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 21.8% Under 78.2% |
+320
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
-375
DraftKings | Spread +30
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Juan Soto
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 79.2% Under 20.8% |
-395
FanDuel | Spread +30
|
+355
DraftKings | Spread +45
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Juan Soto
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 67.8% Under 32.2% |
-220
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
+200
DraftKings | Spread +15
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Juan Soto
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 2.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 47.1% Under 52.9% |
+105
BetMGM | Spread +0
|
-115
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Luis Robert Jr.
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 66.0% Under 34.0% |
-205
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
+185
DraftKings | Spread +15
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Luis Robert Jr.
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 51.8% Under 48.2% |
-115
BetMGM | Spread +0
|
+105
DraftKings | Spread +210
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Luis Robert Jr.
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 2.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 28.9% Under 71.1% |
+235
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
-255
DraftKings | Spread +0
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Marcus Semien
NYM vs PHI
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 11.0% Under 89.0% |
+630
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-875
DraftKings | Spread +55
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Marcus Semien
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 74.3% Under 25.7% |
-300
FanDuel | Spread +20
|
+275
DraftKings | Spread +30
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Marcus Semien
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 57.7% Under 42.3% |
-145
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
+130
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
Shopping Lane
Line-Shop Only Markets
These rows can still help with shopping prices, but they should not be treated as honest CLV anchors yet.
| Player | Market | Anchor | Best Over | Best Under | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Luis Robert Jr.
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 51.8% Under 48.2% |
-115
BetMGM | Spread +0
|
+105
DraftKings | Spread +210
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bo Bichette
NYM vs PHI
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 9.4% Under 90.6% |
+725
DraftKings | Spread +5
|
-1060
DraftKings | Spread +65
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bo Bichette
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 82.5% Under 17.5% |
-490
FanDuel | Spread +45
|
+435
DraftKings | Spread +60
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Marcus Semien
NYM vs PHI
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 11.0% Under 89.0% |
+630
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-875
DraftKings | Spread +55
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Francisco Lindor
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 80.6% Under 19.4% |
-430
FanDuel | Spread +35
|
+385
DraftKings | Spread +50
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Juan Soto
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 79.2% Under 20.8% |
-395
FanDuel | Spread +30
|
+355
DraftKings | Spread +45
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jorge Polanco
NYM vs PHI
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 14.4% Under 85.6% |
+495
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
-635
DraftKings | Spread +40
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Francisco Lindor
NYM vs PHI
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 16.9% Under 83.1% |
+420
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
-520
DraftKings | Spread +35
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Juan Soto
NYM vs PHI
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 21.8% Under 78.2% |
+320
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
-375
DraftKings | Spread +30
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Marcus Semien
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 74.3% Under 25.7% |
-300
FanDuel | Spread +20
|
+275
DraftKings | Spread +30
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jorge Polanco
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 74.5% Under 25.5% |
-305
FanDuel | Spread +15
|
+275
DraftKings | Spread +25
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Mark Vientos
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 69.2% Under 30.8% |
-235
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
+215
DraftKings | Spread +20
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Aaron Nola
PHI vs NYM
|
Strikeouts 5.5
2/2 complete books | BetMGM, FanDuel
|
Over 43.3% Under 56.7% |
+122
FanDuel | Spread +17
|
-145
BetMGM | Spread +11
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Brett Baty
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 66.6% Under 33.4% |
-210
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
+190
DraftKings | Spread +15
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Francisco Lindor
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 67.3% Under 32.7% |
-215
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
+195
DraftKings | Spread +15
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jorge Polanco
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 2.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 37.0% Under 63.0% |
+160
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-175
DraftKings | Spread +15
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Juan Soto
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 67.8% Under 32.2% |
-220
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
+200
DraftKings | Spread +15
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Luis Robert Jr.
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 66.0% Under 34.0% |
-205
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
+185
DraftKings | Spread +15
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Marcus Semien
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 2.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 34.1% Under 65.9% |
+180
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-200
DraftKings | Spread +15
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Mark Vientos
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 2.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 31.6% Under 68.4% |
+200
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-225
DraftKings | Spread +15
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bo Bichette
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 64.9% Under 35.1% |
-195
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
+175
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bo Bichette
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 2.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 41.4% Under 58.6% |
+135
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-145
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Brett Baty
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 46.3% Under 53.7% |
+110
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
-120
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Francisco Alvarez
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 62.6% Under 37.4% |
-175
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
+160
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jorge Polanco
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 59.5% Under 40.5% |
-155
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
+140
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Juan Soto
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 2.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 47.1% Under 52.9% |
+105
BetMGM | Spread +0
|
-115
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Marcus Semien
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 57.7% Under 42.3% |
-145
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
+130
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Mark Vientos
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 55.3% Under 44.7% |
-130
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
+120
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Christian Scott
NYM vs PHI
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 46.1% Under 53.9% |
+106
DraftKings | Spread +6
|
-128
FanDuel | Spread +7
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Francisco Alvarez
NYM vs PHI
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 47.7% Under 52.3% |
+105
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-115
DraftKings | Spread +5
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |