Free-source markets • Anchor readiness • Line shopping
Market Watch
Before judging a number, inspect the market behind it.
Market Watch separates consensus-backed rows from sparse single-book rows. The goal is not to declare something mispriced; it is to decide whether the market is strong enough to support that conversation.
Snapshot
20260926
1%
consensus-backed
Tracked
1524
Anchor-ready
15
Input rows
1553
Updated
2026-09-26 11:57 UTC
Consensus proxy 15
Single-book only 24
Insufficient 1485
Sparse rows still matter for price shopping. They should not be treated as proof of closing-line value.
Lane Health
2026-09-26
Palantir
21711 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.004
14d stable
Fangorn
21711 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Valinor
16023 props
Brier 0.114
ECE 0.001
14d stable
Palantir
1947 props
Brier 0.248
ECE 0.011
14d stable
Fangorn
53 props
Brier 0.257
ECE 0.119
sample building
Valinor
1443 props
Brier 0.248
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Palantir
10429 props
Brier 0.238
ECE 0.039
14d stable
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
850 props
Brier 0.166
ECE 0.036
14d error rising
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
1088 props
Brier 0.255
ECE 0.053
14d stable
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Rolling Accountability
Recent Market Quality
How often the free-source market has enough book coverage to support a cautious consensus-style anchor.
Days covered
30
| Date | Tracked | Anchor-Ready | Consensus Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20260926 | 1524 | 15 | 1.0% |
| 20260925 | 1703 | 22 | 1.3% |
| 20260924 | 1549 | 22 | 1.4% |
| 20260923 | 1584 | 24 | 1.5% |
| 20260922 | 1305 | 30 | 2.3% |
| 20260921 | 272 | 5 | 1.8% |
| 20260920 | 1915 | 23 | 1.2% |
Structure Report
Which prop lanes are healthiest?
Each lane is judged by source depth, current consensus rate, and stability versus its recent average.
Prop Lane
Strikeouts
18%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Total Bases
0%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Hits
0%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Home Run
0%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Pitcher Outs
0%
latest consensus rate
Coverage Mix
Tracked market families
The page is only as strong as the markets it can see. This mix keeps coverage limits visible.
Anchor-Ready
Consensus-Proxy Markets
These rows have enough complete free-source book coverage to support a cautious CLV-style anchor.
| Player | Market | Anchor | Best Over | Best Under | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bailey Ober
MIN vs TEX
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 46.9% Under 53.1% |
+105
BetMGM | Spread +216
|
-115
FanDuel | Spread +25
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Davis Martin
CWS vs COL
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 42.3% Under 57.7% |
+126
FanDuel | Spread +16
|
-150
BetMGM | Spread +12
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Hayden Wesneski
HOU vs OAK
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 45.1% Under 54.9% |
+115
BetMGM | Spread +15
|
-127
DraftKings | Spread +28
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jack Perkins
OAK vs HOU
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 54.4% Under 45.6% |
-125
BetMGM | Spread +31
|
+122
DraftKings | Spread +227
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jonah Tong
NYM vs WSH
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 47.6% Under 52.4% |
+100
DraftKings | Spread +210
|
-120
BetMGM | Spread +8
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jose Quintana
COL vs CWS
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 50.2% Under 49.8% |
-111
FanDuel | Spread +9
|
-110
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Michael Wacha
KC vs CLE
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 59.1% Under 40.9% |
-155
BetMGM | Spread +15
|
+133
DraftKings | Spread +18
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Nathan Eovaldi
TEX vs MIN
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 48.1% Under 51.9% |
-104
FanDuel | Spread +2
|
-120
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Rhett Lowder
CIN vs TOR
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 46.9% Under 53.1% |
+102
FanDuel | Spread +207
|
-125
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Ryan Johnson
LAA vs SEA
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 43.2% Under 56.8% |
+128
DraftKings | Spread +23
|
-140
BetMGM | Spread +24
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Tanner Bibee
CLE vs KC
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 54.9% Under 45.1% |
-122
FanDuel | Spread +28
|
+112
DraftKings | Spread +216
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Trey Yesavage
TOR vs CIN
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 53.5% Under 46.5% |
-125
BetMGM | Spread +15
|
+110
FanDuel | Spread +215
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Dustin May
MIL vs STL
|
Strikeouts 3.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 40.1% Under 59.9% |
+134
FanDuel | Spread +6
|
-163
DraftKings | Spread +9
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Griffin Jax
TB vs PHI
|
Strikeouts 4.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 53.9% Under 46.1% |
-128
FanDuel | Spread +7
|
+106
DraftKings | Spread +6
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Walker Buehler
SD vs ARI
|
Strikeouts 3.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 54.1% Under 45.9% |
-128
FanDuel | Spread +9
|
+107
DraftKings | Spread +7
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
Shopping Lane
Line-Shop Only Markets
These rows can still help with shopping prices, but they should not be treated as honest CLV anchors yet.
| Player | Market | Anchor | Best Over | Best Under | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jack Perkins
OAK vs HOU
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 54.4% Under 45.6% |
-125
BetMGM | Spread +31
|
+122
DraftKings | Spread +227
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bailey Ober
MIN vs TEX
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 46.9% Under 53.1% |
+105
BetMGM | Spread +216
|
-115
FanDuel | Spread +25
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Tanner Bibee
CLE vs KC
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 54.9% Under 45.1% |
-122
FanDuel | Spread +28
|
+112
DraftKings | Spread +216
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Trey Yesavage
TOR vs CIN
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 53.5% Under 46.5% |
-125
BetMGM | Spread +15
|
+110
FanDuel | Spread +215
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jonah Tong
NYM vs WSH
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 47.6% Under 52.4% |
+100
DraftKings | Spread +210
|
-120
BetMGM | Spread +8
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Rhett Lowder
CIN vs TOR
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 46.9% Under 53.1% |
+102
FanDuel | Spread +207
|
-125
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Hayden Wesneski
HOU vs OAK
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 45.1% Under 54.9% |
+115
BetMGM | Spread +15
|
-127
DraftKings | Spread +28
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Ryan Johnson
LAA vs SEA
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 43.2% Under 56.8% |
+128
DraftKings | Spread +23
|
-140
BetMGM | Spread +24
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Michael Wacha
KC vs CLE
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 59.1% Under 40.9% |
-155
BetMGM | Spread +15
|
+133
DraftKings | Spread +18
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Davis Martin
CWS vs COL
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 42.3% Under 57.7% |
+126
FanDuel | Spread +16
|
-150
BetMGM | Spread +12
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jose Quintana
COL vs CWS
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 50.2% Under 49.8% |
-111
FanDuel | Spread +9
|
-110
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Dustin May
MIL vs STL
|
Strikeouts 3.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 40.1% Under 59.9% |
+134
FanDuel | Spread +6
|
-163
DraftKings | Spread +9
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Walker Buehler
SD vs ARI
|
Strikeouts 3.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 54.1% Under 45.9% |
-128
FanDuel | Spread +9
|
+107
DraftKings | Spread +7
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Griffin Jax
TB vs PHI
|
Strikeouts 4.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 53.9% Under 46.1% |
-128
FanDuel | Spread +7
|
+106
DraftKings | Spread +6
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Nathan Eovaldi
TEX vs MIN
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 48.1% Under 51.9% |
-104
FanDuel | Spread +2
|
-120
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Connelly Early
WSH vs NYM
|
Strikeouts 3.5
1/2 complete books | FanDuel
|
Over 41.8% Under 58.2% |
+122
FanDuel | Spread +3
|
-156
FanDuel
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
Justin Verlander
DET vs PIT
|
Strikeouts 5.5
1/2 complete books | DraftKings
|
Over 41.0% Under 59.0% |
+127
DraftKings | Spread +1
|
-160
DraftKings
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
A.J. Ewing
--
|
Hits 0.5
1 source book | FanDuel
|
Over -- Under -- |
-170
FanDuel
|
--
--
|
Sparse This market is too thin to claim an honest anchor right now. |
|
A.J. Ewing
--
|
Hits 1.5
1 source book | FanDuel
|
Over -- Under -- |
+340
FanDuel
|
--
--
|
Sparse This market is too thin to claim an honest anchor right now. |
|
A.J. Ewing
--
|
Hits 2.5
1 source book | FanDuel
|
Over -- Under -- |
+2000
FanDuel
|
--
--
|
Sparse This market is too thin to claim an honest anchor right now. |
|
A.J. Ewing
--
|
Hits 3.5
1 source book | FanDuel
|
Over -- Under -- |
+15000
FanDuel
|
--
--
|
Sparse This market is too thin to claim an honest anchor right now. |
|
Adael Amador
--
|
Hits 0.5
1 source book | FanDuel
|
Over -- Under -- |
-140
FanDuel
|
--
--
|
Sparse This market is too thin to claim an honest anchor right now. |
|
Adael Amador
--
|
Hits 1.5
1 source book | FanDuel
|
Over -- Under -- |
+440
FanDuel
|
--
--
|
Sparse This market is too thin to claim an honest anchor right now. |
|
Adael Amador
--
|
Hits 2.5
1 source book | FanDuel
|
Over -- Under -- |
+2700
FanDuel
|
--
--
|
Sparse This market is too thin to claim an honest anchor right now. |
|
Adael Amador
--
|
Hits 3.5
1 source book | FanDuel
|
Over -- Under -- |
+22500
FanDuel
|
--
--
|
Sparse This market is too thin to claim an honest anchor right now. |
|
Alec Bohm
--
|
Hits 0.5
1 source book | FanDuel
|
Over -- Under -- |
-210
FanDuel
|
--
--
|
Sparse This market is too thin to claim an honest anchor right now. |
|
Alec Bohm
--
|
Hits 1.5
1 source book | FanDuel
|
Over -- Under -- |
+300
FanDuel
|
--
--
|
Sparse This market is too thin to claim an honest anchor right now. |
|
Alec Bohm
--
|
Hits 2.5
1 source book | FanDuel
|
Over -- Under -- |
+1900
FanDuel
|
--
--
|
Sparse This market is too thin to claim an honest anchor right now. |
|
Bailey Ober
--
|
Pitcher Outs 15.5
1/1 complete books | FanDuel
|
Over 45.8% Under 54.2% |
+102
FanDuel
|
-136
FanDuel
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
Bailey Ober
--
|
Strikeouts 4.5
1/1 complete books | FanDuel
|
Over 49.5% Under 50.5% |
-111
FanDuel
|
-115
FanDuel
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |