Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	696	105	160	25	67	.259	.339	.471	.810
2025	699	102	166	22	37	.264	.336	.440	.776
2026	345	52	87	16	14	.282	.354	.506	.860
4 Seasons	2167	326	504	76	153	.259	.333	.454	.787

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18

95

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

83

Defense4 metrics

82

Speed4 metrics

54

Plate skills10 metrics

31

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18

xwOBA preseason	0.331
xwOBA current pace	0.359
xwOBA rolling p50	0.349
Observed weight	62%

xwOBA

0.319 0.333 0.349 0.364 0.378

wOBA

0.375 0.391 0.408 0.426 0.441

ISO

0.179 0.194 0.210 0.227 0.241

K%

25.6% 26.9% 28.3% 29.6% 30.9%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%9.6%

94 +16 vs proj

Exit velocity94.6

99

Hard-hit%54.4%

97

xBA0.397

96

xSLG0.714

95

xwOBA0.359

88

BB%9.6%

63

Bat speed73.6

93

K%28.4%

21

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.0 · SS

43

Arm Strength96.6 · SS

97

Outs Above Avg8.0 · SS

96

Range Runs5.9 · SS

93

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs1.0 · SS

71

Bolts3.0 · SS

42

SB Success Rate69.2% · SS

25

Sprint Speed28.3 · SS

77

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-18

Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.2% · rebadged research

73

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.9% · rebadged research

13

Correct Decisions64.8% · rebadged research

35

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101

49

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · borderline

10

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample

49

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.326 · validated thin sample

1

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample

25

Resists FastballwOBA 0.375 · validated

7

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated

45

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Elly De La Cruz's tools (87) outpace production (84) by 3 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+9.7° Current 6° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

179 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.7σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.408

xwOBA (deserved)0.359

Cruz’s wOBA sits at 0.408, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.359 — a gap of 0.049, -1.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 363 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Langeliers, Shea ATH · R	0.64	Isolated powerSweet-spot rate	Player · Projection
Alonso, Pete BAL · R	0.62	Chase rateWhiff rate	Player · Projection
Bauers, Jake MIL · L	0.59	Hard-hit rateBarrel rate	Player · Projection
Greene, Riley DET · L	0.54	Sweet-spot rateWhiff rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	6	2026-07-17	Impact contact was the main driver

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.339 xwOBA \| 21 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| 3 K
2026-04-20 @ TB0 HR \| 1 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| RBI
2026-04-17 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, R
2026-04-15 vs SF1 HR \| 1 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| HR, BB, 3 K
2026-04-14 vs SF0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 1 E	1-3 \| K

Age	24
Height	6' 6"
Weight	200 lb
Debut	2023-06-06

xwOBA Δ	+0.021
wOBA Δ	+0.070

Hitter Projections 20260.339 xwOBA \| 21 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| 3 K
2026-04-20 @ TB0 HR \| 1 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| RBI
2026-04-17 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, R
2026-04-15 vs SF1 HR \| 1 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| HR, BB, 3 K
2026-04-14 vs SF0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 1 E	1-3 \| K

Elly De La Cruz

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail