Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	696	105	160	25	67	.259	.339	.471	.810
2025	699	102	166	22	37	.264	.336	.440	.776
2026	627	99	157	30	30	.285	.367	.521	.888
4 Seasons	2449	373	574	90	169	.263	.339	.464	.803

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

98

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

88

Defense4 metrics

80

Speed4 metrics

66

Plate skills10 metrics

33

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.331
xwOBA current pace	0.377
xwOBA rolling p50	0.366
Observed weight	75%

xwOBA

0.343 0.354 0.366 0.378 0.389

wOBA

0.385 0.397 0.410 0.423 0.435

ISO

0.202 0.214 0.226 0.238 0.249

K%

25.5% 26.5% 27.6% 28.6% 29.6%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%10.2%

99 +18 vs proj

Exit velocity94.8

99

Hard-hit%55.4%

98

xBA0.412

99

xSLG0.744

97

xwOBA0.377

98

BB%11.2%

83 +16 vs proj

Bat speed74.6

97

K%27.4%

26

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.0 · SS

42

Arm Strength102.0 · SS

100

Outs Above Avg6.0 · SS

92

Range Runs4.6 · SS

86

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs1.8 · SS

76

Bolts17.0 · SS

73

SB Success Rate76.0% · SS

36

Sprint Speed28.4 · SS

78

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.3% · rebadged research

81

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.7% · rebadged research

14

Correct Decisions65.3% · rebadged research

42

Resists FastballwOBA 0.406 · validated

2

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102

56

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · borderline

15

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · insufficient sample

91

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.374 · validated thin sample

0

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample

18

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376 · validated

16

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Elly De La Cruz's tools (83) and production (82) are aligned. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+8.3° Current 8° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

276 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.3σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.410

xwOBA (deserved)0.377

Cruz’s wOBA sits at 0.410, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.377 — a gap of 0.033, -1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 650 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Wood, James WSH · L	0.72	Barrel rateGround-ball rate	Player · Projection
Cruz, Oneil PIT · L	0.65	Walk rateSprint speed	Player · Projection
Alonso, Pete BAL · R	0.59	Swing lengthSweet-spot rate	Player · Projection
Ohtani, Shohei LAD · L	0.58	Isolated powerBarrel rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	9	2026-09-22	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	26	2026-09-24	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.095

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.339 xwOBA \| 21 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-05-20 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| 3 K
2026-04-20 @ TB0 HR \| 1 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| RBI
2026-04-17 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, R
2026-04-15 vs SF1 HR \| 1 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| HR, BB, 3 K

Age	24
Height	6' 6"
Weight	200 lb
Debut	2023-06-06

xwOBA Δ	+0.039
wOBA Δ	+0.071

Hitter Projections 20260.339 xwOBA \| 21 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-05-20 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| 3 K
2026-04-20 @ TB0 HR \| 1 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| RBI
2026-04-17 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, R
2026-04-15 vs SF1 HR \| 1 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| HR, BB, 3 K

Elly De La Cruz

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail