Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2025	446	56	111	19	0	.274	.341	.469	.810
2026	319	49	71	15	1	.254	.345	.437	.782
2 Seasons	765	105	182	34	1	.266	.342	.456	.798

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16

93

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

85

Defense4 metrics

47

Speed2 metrics

18

Plate skills10 metrics

30

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16

xwOBA preseason	0.344
xwOBA current pace	0.379
xwOBA rolling p50	0.365
Observed weight	61%

xwOBA

0.339 0.351 0.365 0.379 0.391

wOBA

0.350 0.366 0.384 0.401 0.417

ISO

0.156 0.169 0.184 0.198 0.212

K%

17.5% 18.7% 20.0% 21.3% 22.5%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%10.3%

97 +29 vs proj

Exit velocity91.6

90

Hard-hit%51.4%

94

xBA0.369

88

xSLG0.687

92

xwOBA0.379

96 +22 vs proj

BB%10.3%

71 +22 vs proj

Bat speed73.0

88

K%22.1%

51 -35 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Blocking Runs0.0 · C

51

Catcher Throwing-3.0 · C

4

Framing Runs1.1 · C

65

Pop Time1.9 · C

66

Baserunning · percentile strip

Bolts1.0 · C

15

Sprint Speed26.1 · C

20

SB Success Rate100.0% · C

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-16

Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.0% · rebadged research

28

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research

49

Correct Decisions63.5% · rebadged research

25

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97

30

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · borderline

12

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample

59

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.299 · validated thin sample

13

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample

74

Resists FastballwOBA 0.376 · validated

6

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.390 · validated

7

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Drake Baldwin's tools (75) outpace production (80) by -5 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-9.0° Current 29° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

169 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.2σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.384

xwOBA (deserved)0.379

Baldwin’s wOBA sits at 0.384, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.379 — a gap of 0.005, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 339 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Nimmo, Brandon TEX · L	0.68	Sweet-spot ratexwOBA on contact	Player · Projection
Alonso, Pete BAL · R	0.67	Bat speedOppo rate	Player · Projection
Canzone, Dominic SEA · L	0.67	Bat speedChase rate	Player · Projection
Ramos, Heliot SF · R	0.67	Isolated powerHard-hit rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	7	2026-07-12	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.334 xwOBA \| 16 HR	Projection
2026-04-20 @ WSH0 HR \| 2 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2B, BB, 2 RBI
2026-04-17 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| K, R
2026-04-15 vs MIA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 12 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 K, RBI, R
2026-04-14 vs MIA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 14 Ch \| 1 E	2-4 \| 2B, K, RBI
2026-04-13 vs MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| BB, K, R

Age	25
Height	6' 0"
Weight	225 lb
Debut	2025-03-27

xwOBA Δ	+0.044
wOBA Δ	+0.049

Hitter Projections 20260.334 xwOBA \| 16 HR	Projection
2026-04-20 @ WSH0 HR \| 2 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2B, BB, 2 RBI
2026-04-17 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| K, R
2026-04-15 vs MIA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 12 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 K, RBI, R
2026-04-14 vs MIA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 14 Ch \| 1 E	2-4 \| 2B, K, RBI
2026-04-13 vs MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| BB, K, R

Drake Baldwin

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail