Mithrandir Metrics
Player Los Angeles Dodgers Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Los Angeles Dodgers

Shohei Ohtani

TWP · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 4", 210 lb · Age 32

Cards
30
Modules
2
Live Δ
yes
Club Los Angeles Dodgers Position TWP Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
20247311341975459.310.390.6461.036
20257271461725520.282.392.6221.014
20264106598226.289.400.543.943
9 Seasons47397731148302171.282.377.579.956
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
98
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
90
Pitching7 metrics
87
Speed3 metrics
53
Plate skills15 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.27
ERA current pace1.79
ERA rolling p502.37
Observed weight61%
ERA
1.31 1.81 2.37 2.93 3.43
FIP
2.04 2.39 2.78 3.17 3.52
K%
25.6% 27.1% 28.8% 30.5% 32.0%
BB%
6.2% 6.9% 7.6% 8.4% 9.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.6%
98
Exit velocity93.6
97
Hard-hit%52.6%
95
xBA0.406
97
xSLG0.802
98
xwOBA0.416
99
BB%14.6%
96
Bat speed73.0
89
K%23.3%
44
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.0%
61
Barrel allowed3.5%
95 +35 vs proj
Fastball velo97.8
93
Hard-hit allowed33.0%
86
K%29.4%
91
Whiff%29.5%
90
xwOBA allowed0.257
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · DH
71
SB Success Rate75.0% · DH
34
Sprint Speed27.5 · DH
53
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.4% · rebadged research
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5% · rebadged research
81
Correct Decisions67.8% · rebadged research
67
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
79
Slider Stuff+111
96
Curveball Stuff+99
9
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · borderline
26
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · insufficient sample
93
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.330 · validated thin sample
1
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · insufficient sample
9
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332 · validated
66
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.416 · validated
2
Sinker Stuff+84
1
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Ohtani, Shohei · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.416 2026-07-06: 0.4092026-07-07: 0.4092026-07-08: 0.4152026-07-09: 0.4152026-07-10: 0.4112026-07-11: 0.4112026-07-12: 0.4122026-07-13: 0.4112026-07-14: 0.4162026-07-15: 0.4162026-07-16: 0.4162026-07-17: 0.416 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Ohtani, Shohei · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 44%44%Chase: 28%28%Whiff: 26%26%Zone contact: 84%84%Contact: 74%74%Hard hit: 53%53% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Ohtani, Shohei · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 74.8 mph Hard swing rate 50% Whiff / swing 26% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ohtani, Shohei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.1%Sweeper: 28.3%Curveball: 10.6%Split-Finger: 9.2%Sinker: 6.2%Slider: 1.0% FF44% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 44%ST 28%CU 11%FS 9%SI 6%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ohtani, Shohei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 98.0 mphFF98 mphSweeper: 28% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.9 mphST85 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 64″ drop, 75.3 mphCU75 mphSplit-Finger: 9% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.6 mphFS89 mphSinker: 6% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 96.2 mphSI96 mphSlider: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 88.0 mphSL88 mphCutter: 1% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.4 mphFC92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.6% 413 107 qualified
SL 34.0% 289 111 qualified
CB 10.7% 91 99 limited sample
SI 5.6% 48 84 limited sample
FC 1.1% 9 86 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age32
Height6' 4"
Weight210 lb
Debut2018-03-29
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ--
wOBA Δ--

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.5σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.428
xwOBA (deserved)0.416

Ohtani’s wOBA sits at 0.428, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.416 — a gap of 0.013, -0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 417 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →
PlayerSimilarityAgrees onOpen
Bauers, Jake MIL · L 0.70 Ground-ball rateFly-ball rate Player · Projection
Judge, Aaron NYY · R 0.67 Fly-ball rateAvg exit velocity Player · Projection
Contreras, Willson BOS · R 0.62 In-zone contactGround-ball rate Player · Projection
Harper, Bryce PHI · L 0.57 In-zone contactWalk rate Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching172026-07-03Four-Seam Fastball played up through ST/SI tunnel quality
Hitting132026-07-06Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202627.8% K | 3.33 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ SD1 HR | 1 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E1-4 | HR, BB, K
2026-04-20 @ COL0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E1-4 | 2 BB, K, 2 R
2026-04-17 @ COL0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E2-5 | 2B, K, R
2026-04-15 vs NYM0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-04-14 vs NYM0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-3 | BB