Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	315	44	85	11	21	.315	.406	.504	.910
2025	644	88	151	29	16	.264	.343	.452	.795
2026	276	42	59	6	6	.243	.327	.379	.706
14 Seasons	7303	1075	1800	239	227	.283	.372	.461	.833

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

50

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

50

Defense1 metrics

63

Speed2 metrics

39

Plate skills10 metrics

56

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17

xwOBA preseason	0.339
xwOBA current pace	0.296
xwOBA rolling p50	0.314
Observed weight	57%

xwOBA

0.288 0.301 0.314 0.328 0.340

wOBA

0.298 0.315 0.333 0.351 0.368

ISO

0.113 0.129 0.147 0.166 0.182

K%

23.1% 24.5% 26.0% 27.6% 28.9%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%4.4%

41 -16 vs proj

Exit velocity87.5

42

Hard-hit%40.4%

57 -23 vs proj

xBA0.328

58

xSLG0.541

61

xwOBA0.296

39 -37 vs proj

BB%9.8%

65

Bat speed70.9

70

K%28.6%

20 -35 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.0 · LF

Small sample

Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF

63 Regression applied

Range Runs0.0 · LF

Small sample

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-0.3 · DH

34

Sprint Speed27.2 · DH

44

SB Success Rate100.0% · DH

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-17

Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.5% · rebadged research

81

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.7% · rebadged research

18

Correct Decisions68.2% · rebadged research

70

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline

63

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample

94

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.318 · validated thin sample

3

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · insufficient sample

91

Resists FastballwOBA 0.368 · validated

11

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated

69

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103

60

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Christian Yelich's tools (76) outpace production (71) by 5 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-20.0° Current 40° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

104 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.3σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.333

xwOBA (deserved)0.296

Yelich’s wOBA sits at 0.333, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.296 — a gap of 0.037, -1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 297 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Butler, Lawrence ATH · L	0.74	xwOBA on contactGround-ball rate	Player · Projection
Bogaerts, Xander SD · R	0.68	Hard-hit rateSweet-spot rate	Player · Projection
Matthews, Brice HOU · R	0.66	Max exit velocityIsolated power	Player · Projection
Chapman, Matt SF · R	0.62	Sweet-spot rateFly-ball rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	3	2026-07-02	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.338 xwOBA \| 22 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| 2 K
2026-04-12 vs WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-2
2026-04-11 vs WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| 2 BB, K
2026-04-08 @ BOS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, SB
2026-04-07 @ BOS0 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| RBI, SB

Age	34
Height	6' 4"
Weight	220 lb
Debut	2013-07-23

xwOBA Δ	-0.042
wOBA Δ	-0.005

Hitter Projections 20260.338 xwOBA \| 22 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| 2 K
2026-04-12 vs WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-2
2026-04-11 vs WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| 2 BB, K
2026-04-08 @ BOS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, SB
2026-04-07 @ BOS0 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| RBI, SB

Christian Yelich

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail