Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 24 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 190 lb |
| Debut | 2023-09-08 |
Player profile / Texas Rangers
Evan Carter
CF · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 2", 190 lb · Age 24
Club Texas Rangers
Position CF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 162 | 23 | 27 | 5 | 2 | .188 | .272 | .361 | .633 |
| 2025 | 220 | 31 | 48 | 5 | 14 | .247 | .336 | .392 | .728 |
| 2026 | 449 | 51 | 74 | 9 | 17 | .192 | .286 | .311 | .597 |
| 4 Seasons | 906 | 120 | 168 | 24 | 36 | .214 | .307 | .366 | .673 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
23
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.277 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.290 |
| Observed weight | 68% |
xwOBA
0.269
0.279
0.290
0.301
0.311
wOBA
0.259
0.272
0.286
0.300
0.313
ISO
0.113
0.126
0.140
0.154
0.167
K%
21.8%
23.0%
24.3%
25.7%
26.9%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.0%
24
-21 vs proj
Exit velocity83.9
12
Hard-hit%34.8%
34
xBA0.285
17
xSLG0.447
30
xwOBA0.277
24
-43 vs proj
BB%10.8%
78
+18 vs proj
Bat speed66.9
21
K%25.8%
34
-25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · CF
31
Arm Strength91.1 · CF
26
Outs Above Avg11.0 · CF
99
Range Runs9.6 · CF
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.0 · CF
92
Bolts43.0 · CF
90
SB Success Rate93.8% · CF
86
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
88
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.6% · rebadged research
90
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.4% · rebadged research
28
Correct Decisions69.4% · rebadged research
81
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320 · validated
82
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
79
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
43
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
88
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.259 · validated thin sample
90
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.303 · insufficient sample
91
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345 · validated
76
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
213 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.041 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.032 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Carter’s wOBA sits at 0.286, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.277 — a gap of 0.009, -0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 461 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bazzana, Travis CLE · L | 0.61 | Oppo rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
| Taveras, Leody BAL · L | 0.60 | Sprint speedBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Collins, Isaac KC · L | 0.58 | Barrel rateChase rate | Player · Projection |
| Holliday, Jackson BAL · L | 0.58 | Sprint speedIsolated power | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 1 | 2026-04-12 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 23 | 2026-09-25 | 2 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +3.989 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.318 xwOBA | 10 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ ATH0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, 2 K, R |
| 2026-05-20 @ COL0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-17 @ SEA0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K |
| 2026-04-15 @ ATH0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, SB |
| 2026-04-14 @ ATH0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | K |