Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 23 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 190 lb |
| Debut | 2023-09-08 |
Player profile / Texas Rangers
Evan Carter
CF · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 2", 190 lb · Age 23
Club Texas Rangers
Position CF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 162 | 23 | 27 | 5 | 2 | .188 | .272 | .361 | .633 |
| 2025 | 220 | 31 | 48 | 5 | 14 | .247 | .336 | .392 | .728 |
| 2026 | 266 | 32 | 42 | 7 | 11 | .188 | .303 | .332 | .635 |
| 4 Seasons | 723 | 101 | 136 | 22 | 30 | .218 | .318 | .388 | .706 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
30
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.294 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.304 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.292
0.304
0.317
0.329
wOBA
0.266
0.282
0.301
0.320
0.336
ISO
0.124
0.141
0.160
0.179
0.196
K%
20.3%
21.8%
23.4%
25.1%
26.5%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
34
Exit velocity84.8
16
Hard-hit%37.5%
44
xBA0.283
16
xSLG0.471
35
xwOBA0.294
37
-25 vs proj
BB%12.9%
89
+30 vs proj
Bat speed68.3
31
K%25.2%
35
-21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.1 · CF
19
Arm Strength91.1 · CF
30
Outs Above Avg7.0 · CF
98
Range Runs6.1 · CF
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.5 · CF
91
Bolts24.0 · CF
84
SB Success Rate90.9% · CF
81
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
89
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.4% · rebadged research
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3% · rebadged research
29
Correct Decisions70.0% · rebadged research
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
34
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · insufficient sample
93
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.253 · validated thin sample
97
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
38
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated
70
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated
66
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
132 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.024 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.017 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Carter’s wOBA sits at 0.301, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.294 — a gap of 0.007, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 278 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norby, Connor MIA · R | 0.74 | Pull rateSwing length | Player · Projection |
| Bazzana, Travis CLE · L | 0.71 | Hard-hit ratexwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Collins, Isaac KC · L | 0.68 | Chase rateBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Taveras, Leody BAL · L | 0.62 | Strikeout rateSprint speed | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 1 | 2026-04-12 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.318 xwOBA | 10 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ COL0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-17 @ SEA0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K |
| 2026-04-15 @ ATH0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, SB |
| 2026-04-14 @ ATH0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | K |
| 2026-04-13 @ ATH0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | BB, 2 K, R |