Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	621	55	158	14	0	.281	.341	.414	.755
2025	651	79	175	25	3	.300	.366	.482	.848
2026	394	51	111	13	1	.322	.398	.490	.888
10 Seasons	4149	522	1068	113	12	.293	.374	.446	.820

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16

79

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

78

Speed2 metrics

22

Plate skills10 metrics

40

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16

xwOBA preseason	0.351
xwOBA current pace	0.368
xwOBA rolling p50	0.362
Observed weight	66%

xwOBA

0.339 0.350 0.362 0.375 0.386

wOBA

0.390 0.405 0.421 0.437 0.452

ISO

0.139 0.152 0.167 0.181 0.194

K%

11.8% 12.8% 13.8% 14.9% 15.8%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%5.7%

61

Exit velocity91.4

89

Hard-hit%49.0%

88

xBA0.351

79

xSLG0.545

63

xwOBA0.368

93

BB%9.3%

59

Bat speed72.4

83

K%13.6%

91

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-0.6 · DH

24

Sprint Speed26.1 · DH

20

SB Success Rate100.0% · DH

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-16

Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.6% · rebadged research

77

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0% · rebadged research

32

Correct Decisions68.8% · rebadged research

77

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104

66

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.346 · borderline

1

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample

32

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.310 · validated thin sample

6

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · insufficient sample

25

Resists FastballwOBA 0.327 · validated

73

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389 · validated

7

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Yandy Díaz's tools (74) outpace production (84) by -10 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+12.8° Current 3° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

224 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.9σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.421

xwOBA (deserved)0.368

Díaz’s wOBA sits at 0.421, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.368 — a gap of 0.053, -1.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 419 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Bichette, Bo NYM · R	0.56	Sprint speedxwOBA on contact	Player · Projection
Contreras, William MIL · R	0.56	Strikeout rateSweet-spot rate	Player · Projection
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir TOR · R	0.56	Sprint speedGround-ball rate	Player · Projection
Bohm, Alec PHI · R	0.53	Sweet-spot rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	8	2026-07-08	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.348 xwOBA \| 20 HR	Projection
2026-04-20 vs CIN0 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, RBI
2026-04-17 @ PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B
2026-04-15 @ CWS0 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 2B, 2 BB, RBI
2026-04-14 @ CWS0 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| RBI
2026-04-12 vs NYY0 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, RBI

Age	34
Height	6' 0"
Weight	235 lb
Debut	2017-04-03

xwOBA Δ	+0.021
wOBA Δ	+0.074

Hitter Projections 20260.348 xwOBA \| 20 HR	Projection
2026-04-20 vs CIN0 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, RBI
2026-04-17 @ PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B
2026-04-15 @ CWS0 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 2B, 2 BB, RBI
2026-04-14 @ CWS0 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| RBI
2026-04-12 vs NYY0 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, RBI

Yandy Díaz

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail