Section III · Betting · Consensus surface
Consensus and disagreement.
See where all three models converge and where their probabilities split.
BANDS aligned ≤ 5pp · soft 6-10pp · disagreement > 10pp
ELIGIBLE 1 markets
MIXED 0 rows outside publish bands
VIEW aligned
Lane Health
2026-09-26
Palantir
21711 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.004
14d stable
Fangorn
21711 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Valinor
16023 props
Brier 0.114
ECE 0.001
14d stable
Palantir
1947 props
Brier 0.248
ECE 0.011
14d stable
Fangorn
53 props
Brier 0.257
ECE 0.119
sample building
Valinor
1443 props
Brier 0.248
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Palantir
10429 props
Brier 0.238
ECE 0.039
14d stable
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
850 props
Brier 0.166
ECE 0.036
14d error rising
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
1088 props
Brier 0.255
ECE 0.053
14d stable
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
A · Three-lane aligned · spread ≤ 5pp
01
HR · 0.5
Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs CLE
FULL
16.7% average · market 17.7% 1.8 pts -1.0pp 02 HR · 0.5 Lawrence Butler ATH vs HOU
FULL
15.9% average · market 14.9% 2.4 pts +1.1pp 03 HR · 0.5 Corbin Carroll AZ vs SD
FULL
15.7% average · market 18.4% 4.3 pts -2.6pp 04 HR · 0.5 Ketel Marte AZ vs SD
FULL
15.5% average · market 21.1% 1.9 pts -5.6pp 05 HR · 0.5 Bobby Witt Jr. KC vs CLE
FULL
15.4% average · market 17.7% 3.6 pts -2.3pp 06 HR · 0.5 Brandon Nimmo TEX vs MIN
FULL
15.3% average · market 16.4% 1.7 pts -1.1pp 07 HR · 0.5 Shea Langeliers ATH vs HOU
FULL
15.3% average · market 20.8% 1.6 pts -5.6pp 08 HR · 0.5 Salvador Perez KC vs CLE
FULL
15.2% average · market 18.0% 3.8 pts -2.8pp 09 HR · 0.5 Iván Herrera STL vs MIL
FULL
15.0% average · market 12.5% 1.8 pts +2.5pp 10 HR · 0.5 Wyatt Langford TEX vs MIN
FULL
14.9% average · market 14.4% 1.9 pts +0.6pp 11 HR · 0.5 Corey Seager TEX vs MIN
FULL
14.5% average · market 22.5% 1.2 pts -7.9pp 12 HR · 0.5 Alec Burleson STL vs MIL
FULL
14.2% average · market 13.3% 1.7 pts +1.0pp 13 HR · 0.5 Heliot Ramos SF vs LAD
FULL
14.1% average · market 13.7% 2.5 pts +0.4pp 14 HR · 0.5 José Ramírez CLE vs KC
FULL
14.1% average · market 20.4% 2.6 pts -6.3pp 15 HR · 0.5 Hunter Goodman COL vs CWS
FULL
14.1% average · market 18.0% 1.5 pts -3.9pp 16 HR · 0.5 Brandon Lowe PIT vs DET
FULL
14.0% average · market 20.4% 0.4 pts -6.4pp 17 HR · 0.5 Evan Carter TEX vs MIN
FULL
14.0% average · market 11.0% 4.2 pts +3.0pp 18 HR · 0.5 Ryan O'Hearn PIT vs DET
FULL
13.8% average · market 13.0% 1.8 pts +0.8pp 19 HR · 0.5 Bryan Reynolds PIT vs DET
FULL
13.5% average · market 14.1% 2.6 pts -0.5pp 20 HR · 0.5 Geraldo Perdomo AZ vs SD
FULL
13.4% average · market 9.3% 4.6 pts +4.1pp 21 HR · 0.5 Josh Bell MIN vs TEX
FULL
13.3% average · market 15.5% 0.9 pts -2.2pp 22 HR · 0.5 Bo Naylor CLE vs KC
FULL
12.9% average · market 13.9% 3.2 pts -1.0pp 23 HR · 0.5 Jake Burger TEX vs MIN
FULL
12.4% average · market 19.2% 4.4 pts -6.8pp 24 HR · 0.5 Royce Lewis MIN vs TEX
FULL
12.2% average · market 15.8% 4.6 pts -3.5pp 25 HR · 0.5 Austin Hays CWS vs COL
FULL
12.1% average · market 11.7% 3.4 pts +0.4pp 26 HR · 0.5 Spencer Horwitz PIT vs DET
FULL
11.9% average · market 11.3% 3.6 pts +0.6pp 27 HR · 0.5 Brenton Doyle COL vs CWS
FULL
11.8% average · market 12.5% 2.4 pts -0.7pp 28 HR · 0.5 Ezequiel Tovar COL vs CWS
FULL
11.7% average · market 13.1% 1.8 pts -1.4pp 29 HR · 0.5 Andrew Benintendi CWS vs COL
FULL
11.5% average · market 12.2% 3.7 pts -0.7pp 30 HR · 0.5 Steven Kwan CLE vs KC
FULL
9.8% average · market 8.7% 3.9 pts +1.1pp 31 HR · 0.5 Daniel Schneemann CLE vs KC
FULL
9.6% average · market 11.1% 1.6 pts -1.5pp
P
17.0
F
15.6
V
17.4
FULL
16.7% average · market 17.7% 1.8 pts -1.0pp 02 HR · 0.5 Lawrence Butler ATH vs HOU
P
17.3
F
15.6
V
14.9
FULL
15.9% average · market 14.9% 2.4 pts +1.1pp 03 HR · 0.5 Corbin Carroll AZ vs SD
P
18.0
F
15.6
V
13.7
FULL
15.7% average · market 18.4% 4.3 pts -2.6pp 04 HR · 0.5 Ketel Marte AZ vs SD
P
16.4
F
15.6
V
14.4
FULL
15.5% average · market 21.1% 1.9 pts -5.6pp 05 HR · 0.5 Bobby Witt Jr. KC vs CLE
P
15.0
F
13.8
V
17.4
FULL
15.4% average · market 17.7% 3.6 pts -2.3pp 06 HR · 0.5 Brandon Nimmo TEX vs MIN
P
16.2
F
15.3
V
14.4
FULL
15.3% average · market 16.4% 1.7 pts -1.1pp 07 HR · 0.5 Shea Langeliers ATH vs HOU
P
16.1
F
14.4
V
15.3
FULL
15.3% average · market 20.8% 1.6 pts -5.6pp 08 HR · 0.5 Salvador Perez KC vs CLE
P
14.3
F
13.8
V
17.5
FULL
15.2% average · market 18.0% 3.8 pts -2.8pp 09 HR · 0.5 Iván Herrera STL vs MIL
P
15.7
F
15.3
V
14.0
FULL
15.0% average · market 12.5% 1.8 pts +2.5pp 10 HR · 0.5 Wyatt Langford TEX vs MIN
P
15.7
F
15.3
V
13.8
FULL
14.9% average · market 14.4% 1.9 pts +0.6pp 11 HR · 0.5 Corey Seager TEX vs MIN
P
14.0
F
14.4
V
15.2
FULL
14.5% average · market 22.5% 1.2 pts -7.9pp 12 HR · 0.5 Alec Burleson STL vs MIL
P
13.9
F
15.3
V
13.5
FULL
14.2% average · market 13.3% 1.7 pts +1.0pp 13 HR · 0.5 Heliot Ramos SF vs LAD
P
14.3
F
15.3
V
12.7
FULL
14.1% average · market 13.7% 2.5 pts +0.4pp 14 HR · 0.5 José Ramírez CLE vs KC
P
15.1
F
14.5
V
12.6
FULL
14.1% average · market 20.4% 2.6 pts -6.3pp 15 HR · 0.5 Hunter Goodman COL vs CWS
P
13.1
F
14.5
V
14.6
FULL
14.1% average · market 18.0% 1.5 pts -3.9pp 16 HR · 0.5 Brandon Lowe PIT vs DET
P
14.0
F
13.8
V
14.1
FULL
14.0% average · market 20.4% 0.4 pts -6.4pp 17 HR · 0.5 Evan Carter TEX vs MIN
P
15.4
F
15.3
V
11.2
FULL
14.0% average · market 11.0% 4.2 pts +3.0pp 18 HR · 0.5 Ryan O'Hearn PIT vs DET
P
12.7
F
14.5
V
14.0
FULL
13.8% average · market 13.0% 1.8 pts +0.8pp 19 HR · 0.5 Bryan Reynolds PIT vs DET
P
12.3
F
13.4
V
14.9
FULL
13.5% average · market 14.1% 2.6 pts -0.5pp 20 HR · 0.5 Geraldo Perdomo AZ vs SD
P
14.4
F
15.3
V
10.6
FULL
13.4% average · market 9.3% 4.6 pts +4.1pp 21 HR · 0.5 Josh Bell MIN vs TEX
P
13.1
F
13.8
V
12.9
FULL
13.3% average · market 15.5% 0.9 pts -2.2pp 22 HR · 0.5 Bo Naylor CLE vs KC
P
13.1
F
14.4
V
11.2
FULL
12.9% average · market 13.9% 3.2 pts -1.0pp 23 HR · 0.5 Jake Burger TEX vs MIN
P
9.8
F
13.3
V
14.2
FULL
12.4% average · market 19.2% 4.4 pts -6.8pp 24 HR · 0.5 Royce Lewis MIN vs TEX
P
9.3
F
13.3
V
14.0
FULL
12.2% average · market 15.8% 4.6 pts -3.5pp 25 HR · 0.5 Austin Hays CWS vs COL
P
12.2
F
13.8
V
10.3
FULL
12.1% average · market 11.7% 3.4 pts +0.4pp 26 HR · 0.5 Spencer Horwitz PIT vs DET
P
10.2
F
13.8
V
11.6
FULL
11.9% average · market 11.3% 3.6 pts +0.6pp 27 HR · 0.5 Brenton Doyle COL vs CWS
P
10.4
F
12.2
V
12.7
FULL
11.8% average · market 12.5% 2.4 pts -0.7pp 28 HR · 0.5 Ezequiel Tovar COL vs CWS
P
10.9
F
11.6
V
12.7
FULL
11.7% average · market 13.1% 1.8 pts -1.4pp 29 HR · 0.5 Andrew Benintendi CWS vs COL
P
10.6
F
13.8
V
10.1
FULL
11.5% average · market 12.2% 3.7 pts -0.7pp 30 HR · 0.5 Steven Kwan CLE vs KC
P
7.7
F
11.6
V
10.1
FULL
9.8% average · market 8.7% 3.9 pts +1.1pp 31 HR · 0.5 Daniel Schneemann CLE vs KC
P
10.5
F
8.9
V
9.3
FULL
9.6% average · market 11.1% 1.6 pts -1.5pp
B · Soft consensus · spread 6-10pp
01
HR · 0.5
Chase Meidroth
CWS vs COL
FULL
7.8% average · market 7.7% 6.3 pts +0.2pp 02 HR · 0.5 Jake Mangum PIT vs DET
FULL
7.2% average · market 8.0% 5.6 pts -0.8pp 03 HR · 0.5 Luis Arraez SF vs LAD
FULL
7.2% average · market 8.0% 5.9 pts -0.8pp 04 HR · 0.5 Luke Keaschall MIN vs TEX
FULL
6.0% average · market 11.0% 9.9 pts -5.0pp
P
5.0
F
7.3
V
11.2
FULL
7.8% average · market 7.7% 6.3 pts +0.2pp 02 HR · 0.5 Jake Mangum PIT vs DET
P
5.1
F
6.0
V
10.7
FULL
7.2% average · market 8.0% 5.6 pts -0.8pp 03 HR · 0.5 Luis Arraez SF vs LAD
P
4.2
F
7.3
V
10.0
FULL
7.2% average · market 8.0% 5.9 pts -0.8pp 04 HR · 0.5 Luke Keaschall MIN vs TEX
P
8.1
F
0.0
V
9.9
FULL
6.0% average · market 11.0% 9.9 pts -5.0pp
C · Disagreement watch · spread > 10pp
D · Coverage transparency