Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 25 |
| Height | 6' 4" |
| Weight | 228 lb |
| Debut | 2022-04-08 |
Player profile / Seattle Mariners
Julio Rodríguez
CF · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 4", 228 lb · Age 25
Club Seattle Mariners
Position CF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 613 | 76 | 155 | 20 | 24 | .273 | .325 | .409 | .734 |
| 2025 | 710 | 106 | 174 | 32 | 30 | .267 | .324 | .474 | .798 |
| 2026 | 649 | 69 | 147 | 22 | 22 | .249 | .310 | .404 | .714 |
| 5 Seasons | 3246 | 437 | 801 | 134 | 138 | .269 | .327 | .456 | .783 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
79
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.347 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.336 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.338 |
| Observed weight | 75% |
xwOBA
0.318
0.328
0.338
0.349
0.359
wOBA
0.306
0.317
0.329
0.342
0.353
ISO
0.145
0.155
0.166
0.177
0.187
K%
20.3%
21.3%
22.3%
23.3%
24.3%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
70
Exit velocity90.3
81
Hard-hit%44.1%
78
xBA0.351
84
xSLG0.585
76
xwOBA0.336
83
BB%7.2%
35
Bat speed74.9
98
K%22.1%
54
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.6 · CF
84
Arm Strength98.5 · CF
84
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · CF
9
Range Runs-3.1 · CF
20
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.2 · CF
94
Bolts28.0 · CF
78
SB Success Rate87.0% · CF
71
Sprint Speed28.7 · CF
84
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.8% · rebadged research
18
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.6% · rebadged research
66
Correct Decisions63.0% · rebadged research
22
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
57
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
70
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
27
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.256 · insufficient sample
96
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.324 · validated thin sample
2
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
42
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.016 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.023 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Rodríguez’s wOBA sits at 0.329, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.336 — a gap of 0.006, 0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 664 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adell, Jo LAA · R | 0.88 | Avg exit velocityIsolated power | Player · Projection |
| Smith, Cam HOU · R | 0.79 | Sweet-spot rateWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| Duran, Jarren BOS · L | 0.77 | Walk rateMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Crews, Dylan WSH · R | 0.74 | Barrel rateWalk rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 10 | 2026-08-12 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.352 xwOBA | 27 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | 2 R |
| 2026-05-20 vs CWS0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | 2B, R |
| 2026-04-20 vs ATH0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | K, R, SB |
| 2026-04-17 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, 2 K |
| 2026-04-15 @ SD0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | BB, K |