Mithrandir Metrics

PITCHER OUTS 2026-07-16 · saved artifact ROWS 1 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist

Lane Health 2026-07-16

Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Pitcher Outs

Choose which Mithrandir probability lane drives this board. The URL stores the selected lane, so links stay shareable.

Palantir production Fangorn experimental Valinor missing

Signal caveat Market context only.

Pitcher outs is running as market context only right now. On the graded record to date the model's over/under probabilities have not shown reliable signal at posted lines, and daily recalibration is intentionally pulling them toward neutral. Treat this board as context, not conviction, while the sample accumulates.

0 / 300 fresh graded predictions. Auto-review at 300 fresh graded predictions (since 2026-07-01): the caveat lifts only when the calibration curve is monotone and Brier is at or under the base rate.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Pitcher Outs board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	Outs proj	IP	BF	Recent K	Recent BB	Best line
01	Aaron NolaPHI	PHI vs NYMneutral	P 44.8 F 45.4 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 15.5	55.2%Under prob · Palantir	51.0%no-vig	+10.60%	16.77count	5.59leash	22.744volume	0.2335traffic	0.0595traffic	FanDuel -112 avg 1 books