Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	539	88	149	21	19	.295	.338	.469	.807
2025	639	94	179	15	36	.304	.355	.457	.812
2026	419	63	92	11	16	.236	.284	.362	.646
12 Seasons	6025	933	1623	197	331	.293	.344	.470	.814

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

44

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

43

Defense3 metrics

24

Speed4 metrics

90

Plate skills10 metrics

57

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17

xwOBA preseason	0.322
xwOBA current pace	0.290
xwOBA rolling p50	0.301
Observed weight	66%

xwOBA

0.277 0.288 0.301 0.313 0.324

wOBA

0.275 0.288 0.303 0.318 0.331

ISO

0.113 0.125 0.138 0.151 0.163

K%

19.1% 20.2% 21.3% 22.4% 23.4%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%4.4%

40

Exit velocity88.6

56

Hard-hit%40.2%

55

xBA0.316

44

xSLG0.478

39

xwOBA0.290

32 -31 vs proj

BB%6.0%

20

Bat speed70.0

55

K%22.2%

50 -25 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Strength85.9 · SS

46

Outs Above Avg-5.0 · SS

7

Range Runs-3.6 · SS

17

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs2.5 · SS

91

Bolts56.0 · SS

98

SB Success Rate88.2% · SS

73

Sprint Speed29.9 · SS

99

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-17

Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.8% · rebadged research

27

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8% · rebadged research

63

Correct Decisions64.4% · rebadged research

32

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98

33

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.249 · borderline

98

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample

45

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample

83

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.314 · insufficient sample

90

Resists FastballwOBA 0.393 · validated

3

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335 · validated

92

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Trea Turner's tools (60) outpace production (69) by -10 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+21.8° Current -6° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

229 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.5σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.303

xwOBA (deserved)0.290

Turner’s wOBA sits at 0.303, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.290 — a gap of 0.013, -0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 436 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Realmuto, J.T. PHI · R	0.73	Fly-ball ratexwOBA on contact	Player · Projection
Merrill, Jackson SD · L	0.69	Max exit velocityChase rate	Player · Projection
Duran, Ezequiel TEX · R	0.69	Ground-ball rateStrikeout rate	Player · Projection
Peraza, Oswald LAA · R	0.69	Whiff rateBat speed	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	2	2026-07-16	Passive in-zone decisions capped the overall score

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.319 xwOBA \| 19 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 2 BB, R, 2 SB
2026-04-20 @ CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| BB
2026-04-17 vs ATL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| BB
2026-04-15 vs CHC1 HR \| 1 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| HR, BB, K
2026-04-14 vs CHC0 HR \| 1 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI

Age	33
Height	6' 1"
Weight	185 lb
Debut	2015-08-21

xwOBA Δ	-0.029
wOBA Δ	-0.016

Hitter Projections 20260.319 xwOBA \| 19 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 2 BB, R, 2 SB
2026-04-20 @ CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| BB
2026-04-17 vs ATL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| BB
2026-04-15 vs CHC1 HR \| 1 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| HR, BB, K
2026-04-14 vs CHC0 HR \| 1 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI

Trea Turner

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail