Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 27 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 215 lb |
| Debut | 2023-08-22 |
Player profile / Boston Red Sox
Wilyer Abreu
RF · Bats/Throws L/L · 5' 10", 215 lb · Age 27
Club Boston Red Sox
Position RF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 447 | 59 | 101 | 15 | 8 | .253 | .322 | .459 | .781 |
| 2025 | 417 | 53 | 92 | 22 | 6 | .247 | .317 | .469 | .786 |
| 2026 | 677 | 81 | 148 | 24 | 8 | .249 | .328 | .448 | .776 |
| 4 Seasons | 1626 | 203 | 365 | 63 | 25 | .253 | .327 | .458 | .785 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
80
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.347 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.341 |
| Observed weight | 76% |
xwOBA
0.323
0.331
0.341
0.351
0.360
wOBA
0.325
0.336
0.348
0.360
0.371
ISO
0.183
0.193
0.203
0.214
0.224
K%
19.5%
20.5%
21.5%
22.6%
23.6%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
92
Exit velocity89.7
73
Hard-hit%43.3%
74
xBA0.332
67
xSLG0.615
83
xwOBA0.347
91
BB%10.3%
72
Bat speed72.3
83
K%20.7%
63
+28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.5 · RF
91
Arm Strength99.9 · RF
91
Outs Above Avg2.0 · RF
88
Range Runs1.7 · RF
69
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.5 · RF
21
Bolts4.0 · RF
39
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
19
Sprint Speed28.0 · RF
65
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.3% · rebadged research
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2% · rebadged research
62
Correct Decisions66.3% · rebadged research
51
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
52
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
59
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.349 · borderline
1
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
15
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
30
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · insufficient sample
5
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
17
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.018 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.019 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Abreu’s wOBA sits at 0.348, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.347 — a gap of 0.001, -0.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 692 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suzuki, Seiya CHC · R | 0.74 | xwOBA on contactMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Jensen, Carter KC · L | 0.71 | Ground-ball rateSwing length | Player · Projection |
| Greene, Riley DET · L | 0.68 | Isolated powerAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Aranda, Jonathan TB · L | 0.66 | Oppo rateChase rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 15 | 2026-09-09 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 27 | 2026-09-25 | 7 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.094 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.329 xwOBA | 19 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ PIT1 HR | 1 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 3-4 | HR, 2 2B, RBI |
| 2026-05-20 @ KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 1 E | 1-5 | 3 K |
| 2026-04-20 vs DET0 HR | 1 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | BB, K, RBI |
| 2026-04-17 vs DET0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-14 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |