Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 32 |
| Height | 6' 4" |
| Weight | 225 lb |
| Debut | 2016-09-12 |
Player profile / Atlanta Braves
Matt Olson
1B · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 4", 225 lb · Age 32
Club Atlanta Braves
Position 1B
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 685 | 78 | 148 | 29 | 0 | .247 | .333 | .457 | .790 |
| 2025 | 724 | 98 | 170 | 29 | 1 | .272 | .366 | .484 | .850 |
| 2026 | 416 | 64 | 99 | 25 | 2 | .267 | .339 | .534 | .873 |
| 11 Seasons | 5613 | 776 | 1254 | 313 | 11 | .258 | .350 | .510 | .860 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
90
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.352 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.358 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.356 |
| Observed weight | 66% |
xwOBA
0.329
0.342
0.356
0.370
0.383
wOBA
0.368
0.383
0.398
0.414
0.429
ISO
0.222
0.237
0.254
0.271
0.286
K%
21.5%
22.7%
23.9%
25.2%
26.3%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.7%
95
Exit velocity92.9
95
Hard-hit%52.1%
95
xBA0.344
73
xSLG0.698
94
xwOBA0.358
88
BB%9.2%
57
-25 vs proj
Bat speed73.1
89
K%23.7%
42
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B
89
Range Runs3.1 · 1B
80
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · 1B
35
Sprint Speed25.4 · 1B
9
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.8% · rebadged research
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4% · rebadged research
47
Correct Decisions68.6% · rebadged research
74
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · borderline
13
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
70
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.259 · validated thin sample
94
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
26
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356 · validated
19
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.388 · validated
8
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
209 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.037 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Olson’s wOBA sits at 0.398, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.358 — a gap of 0.040, -1.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 435 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Devers, Rafael SF · L | 0.69 | Walk rateOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Eldridge, Bryce SF · L | 0.68 | Chase rateHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Alonso, Pete BAL · R | 0.67 | Bat speedChase rate | Player · Projection |
| Pederson, Joc TEX · L | 0.65 | Pull rateStrikeout rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 10 | 2026-07-09 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.362 xwOBA | 31 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ MIA0 HR | 1 RBI / 7 Ch | 0 E | 1-5 | 2 K, RBI, R |
| 2026-04-20 @ WSH1 HR | 3 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | HR, 3 RBI, R |
| 2026-04-17 @ PHI0 HR | 1 RBI / 7 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | 3 BB, RBI, R |
| 2026-04-15 vs MIA1 HR | 2 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | HR, K, 2 RBI |
| 2026-04-14 vs MIA0 HR | 1 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, K, RBI |