Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	685	78	148	29	0	.247	.333	.457	.790
2025	724	98	170	29	1	.272	.366	.484	.850
2026	691	99	156	41	4	.252	.323	.506	.829
11 Seasons	5888	811	1311	329	13	.256	.348	.508	.856

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

92

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

82

Defense2 metrics

93

Speed2 metrics

22

Plate skills10 metrics

48

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.352
xwOBA current pace	0.353
xwOBA rolling p50	0.353
Observed weight	76%

xwOBA

0.331 0.341 0.353 0.364 0.375

wOBA

0.349 0.360 0.373 0.385 0.396

ISO

0.224 0.236 0.249 0.262 0.273

K%

22.4% 23.4% 24.4% 25.4% 26.3%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%9.7%

98

Exit velocity92.5

96

Hard-hit%52.4%

96

xBA0.341

76

xSLG0.695

95

xwOBA0.353

93

BB%9.0%

56 -30 vs proj

Bat speed72.9

89

K%24.4%

42

Defense · percentile strip

Outs Above Avg10.0 · 1B

96

Range Runs7.7 · 1B

91

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-0.4 · 1B

35

Sprint Speed25.3 · 1B

8

SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1% · rebadged research

68

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4% · rebadged research

59

Correct Decisions68.9% · rebadged research

78

Resists FastballwOBA 0.308 · validated

93

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105

71

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.337 · borderline

4

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample

49

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample

46

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.355 · insufficient sample

7

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.383 · validated

10

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Matt Olson's tools (78) and production (77) are aligned. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.8σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.373

xwOBA (deserved)0.353

Olson’s wOBA sits at 0.373, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.353 — a gap of 0.020, -0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 710 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Devers, Rafael SF · L	0.77	Hard-hit rateAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection
Pederson, Joc TEX · L	0.74	Strikeout rateHard-hit rate	Player · Projection
Alonso, Pete BAL · R	0.65	Barrel rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Rice, Ben NYY · L	0.62	Strikeout rateMax exit velocity	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	16	2026-09-23	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	33	2026-09-25	6 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.676

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.362 xwOBA \| 31 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2B, R
2026-05-20 @ MIA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| 2 K, RBI, R
2026-04-20 @ WSH1 HR \| 3 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| HR, 3 RBI, R
2026-04-17 @ PHI0 HR \| 1 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 3 BB, RBI, R
2026-04-15 vs MIA1 HR \| 2 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| HR, K, 2 RBI

Age	32
Height	6' 4"
Weight	225 lb
Debut	2016-09-12

xwOBA Δ	-0.009
wOBA Δ	+0.011

Hitter Projections 20260.362 xwOBA \| 31 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2B, R
2026-05-20 @ MIA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| 2 K, RBI, R
2026-04-20 @ WSH1 HR \| 3 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| HR, 3 RBI, R
2026-04-17 @ PHI0 HR \| 1 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 3 BB, RBI, R
2026-04-15 vs MIA1 HR \| 2 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| HR, K, 2 RBI

Matt Olson

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail