Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 27 |
| Height | 6' 0" |
| Weight | 225 lb |
| Debut | 2022-09-08 |
Player profile / St. Louis Cardinals
Alec Burleson
1B · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 0", 225 lb · Age 27
Club St. Louis Cardinals
Position 1B
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 595 | 71 | 147 | 21 | 9 | .269 | .314 | .420 | .734 |
| 2025 | 546 | 54 | 144 | 18 | 5 | .290 | .343 | .459 | .802 |
| 2026 | 398 | 49 | 98 | 15 | 3 | .273 | .337 | .468 | .805 |
| 5 Seasons | 1939 | 212 | 475 | 63 | 21 | .269 | .323 | .431 | .754 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
89
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.341 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.383 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.368 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.346
0.356
0.368
0.380
0.390
wOBA
0.340
0.354
0.370
0.386
0.400
ISO
0.153
0.165
0.179
0.193
0.206
K%
12.7%
13.6%
14.7%
15.7%
16.7%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
89
+29 vs proj
Exit velocity91.7
91
Hard-hit%49.2%
89
+23 vs proj
xBA0.353
80
xSLG0.647
86
xwOBA0.383
97
+21 vs proj
BB%8.2%
45
Bat speed71.6
76
K%15.2%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
18
Range Runs-1.5 · 1B
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · 1B
46
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
12
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.9% · rebadged research
41
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8% · rebadged research
42
Correct Decisions65.5% · rebadged research
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
44
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
12
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.328 · validated thin sample
1
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
74
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346 · validated
36
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361 · validated
43
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
214 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.045 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.032 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Burleson’s wOBA sits at 0.370, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.383 — a gap of 0.013, 0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 415 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Basallo, Samuel BAL · L | 0.74 | Swing lengthAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Bell, Josh MIN · L | 0.74 | Fly-ball rateIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
| Alvarez, Francisco NYM · R | 0.68 | Sprint speedxwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Canzone, Dominic SEA · L | 0.67 | Walk rateGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 6 | 2026-06-28 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.338 xwOBA | 18 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 vs PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 12 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | BB, HBP |
| 2026-04-20 @ MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 12 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |
| 2026-04-17 @ HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 11 Ch | 1 E | 2-4 | 2B, BB, K |
| 2026-04-15 vs CLE0 HR | 2 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | 2 K, 2 RBI |
| 2026-04-14 vs CLE0 HR | 0 RBI / 13 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K |