Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 28 |
| Height | 6' 1" |
| Weight | 220 lb |
| Debut | 2022-08-10 |
Player profile / Detroit Tigers
Kerry Carpenter
RF · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 1", 220 lb · Age 28
Club Detroit Tigers
Position RF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 296 | 37 | 75 | 18 | 0 | .284 | .345 | .587 | .932 |
| 2025 | 464 | 66 | 109 | 26 | 1 | .252 | .291 | .497 | .788 |
| 2026 | 231 | 26 | 45 | 13 | 0 | .222 | .297 | .458 | .755 |
| 5 Seasons | 1563 | 202 | 371 | 83 | 7 | .261 | .318 | .500 | .818 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
72
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.337 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.306 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.320 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.296
0.307
0.320
0.333
0.344
wOBA
0.315
0.333
0.353
0.374
0.392
ISO
0.186
0.203
0.222
0.242
0.259
K%
24.0%
25.4%
26.9%
28.5%
29.9%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
68
-17 vs proj
Exit velocity90.7
82
Hard-hit%49.3%
89
xBA0.329
59
xSLG0.632
84
xwOBA0.306
48
-35 vs proj
BB%7.8%
40
Bat speed70.0
55
K%30.6%
15
-27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.5 · RF
37
Arm Strength92.0 · RF
43
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
22
Range Runs-6.1 · RF
3
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
34
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.2% · rebadged research
25
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.1% · rebadged research
70
Correct Decisions61.6% · rebadged research
13
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · borderline
83
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
94
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.335 · validated thin sample
0
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
26
Resists FastballwOBA 0.358 · validated
18
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
99 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.042 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.006 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Carpenter’s wOBA sits at 0.353, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.306 — a gap of 0.048, -1.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 255 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neto, Zach LAA · R | 0.77 | Isolated powerOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Lowe, Brandon PIT · L | 0.76 | Sweet-spot rateIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
| Rooker, Brent ATH · R | 0.70 | Strikeout rateFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Devers, Rafael SF · L | 0.69 | Bat speedSwing length | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-04-18 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.348 xwOBA | 24 HR | Projection |
| 2026-04-20 @ BOS0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | HBP, K |
| 2026-04-15 vs KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | K |
| 2026-04-12 vs MIA1 HR | 2 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | HR, BB, K |
| 2026-04-11 vs MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | 2B, HBP |
| 2026-04-09 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | 2 K |