Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	516	75	130	19	16	.289	.372	.491	.863
2025	663	95	152	20	8	.258	.326	.406	.732
2026	524	71	123	23	2	.259	.328	.458	.786
13 Seasons	7460	1237	1890	314	198	.288	.366	.508	.874

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

64

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

64

Defense4 metrics

79

Speed3 metrics

24

Plate skills10 metrics

54

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.360
xwOBA current pace	0.341
xwOBA rolling p50	0.346
Observed weight	71%

xwOBA

0.322 0.334 0.346 0.359 0.370

wOBA

0.339 0.352 0.366 0.379 0.392

ISO

0.168 0.180 0.193 0.206 0.218

K%

9.2% 10.0% 10.9% 11.8% 12.6%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.3%

72

Exit velocity90.2

81

Hard-hit%37.9%

48

xBA0.317

50

xSLG0.493

48

xwOBA0.341

86

BB%10.0%

68

Bat speed67.5

26

K%10.3%

98

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.2 · SS

79

Arm Strength87.7 · SS

56

Outs Above Avg7.0 · SS

93

Range Runs5.4 · SS

88

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-0.1 · SS

40

SB Success Rate40.0% · SS

1

Sprint Speed26.7 · SS

30

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.9% · rebadged research

93

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0% · rebadged research

24

Correct Decisions69.3% · rebadged research

81

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107

83

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · borderline

40

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · insufficient sample

23

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.256 · validated thin sample

92

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample

58

Resists FastballwOBA 0.404 · validated

2

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361 · validated

40

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Mookie Betts's production (80) outpaces the tools grade (73) by 8 points. Primary finding: high exit velocity but low barrel rate — bat-to-ball efficiency is leaving power on the table. Also flagged: Passive In-Zone Approach.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

249 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.0σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.366

xwOBA (deserved)0.341

Betts’s wOBA sits at 0.366, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.341 — a gap of 0.025, -1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 542 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
McGonigle, Kevin DET · L	0.67	Chase rateHard-hit rate	Player · Projection
Rutschman, Adley BAL · L	0.66	Swing lengthPull rate	Player · Projection
Pasquantino, Vinnie KC · L	0.64	xwOBA on contactGround-ball rate	Player · Projection
Bregman, Alex CHC · R	0.64	Swing lengthHard-hit rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	16	2026-09-19	Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding	28	2026-09-25	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.218

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.352 xwOBA \| 24 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K
2026-05-20 @ SD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2B, BB, CS
2026-04-04 @ WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| BB, R
2026-04-03 @ WSH1 HR \| 2 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	2-6 \| HR, 2 RBI, 2 R
2026-04-01 vs CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB

Age	33
Height	5' 9"
Weight	180 lb
Debut	2014-06-29

xwOBA Δ	-0.011
wOBA Δ	+0.014

Hitter Projections 20260.352 xwOBA \| 24 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K
2026-05-20 @ SD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2B, BB, CS
2026-04-04 @ WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| BB, R
2026-04-03 @ WSH1 HR \| 2 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	2-6 \| HR, 2 RBI, 2 R
2026-04-01 vs CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB

Mookie Betts

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail