Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2025	428	37	120	3	27	.296	.330	.368	.698
2026	475	56	118	5	23	.273	.329	.361	.690
2 Seasons	903	93	238	8	50	.284	.330	.364	.694

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

20

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

23

Defense4 metrics

54

Speed4 metrics

70

Plate skills10 metrics

47

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.274
xwOBA current pace	0.284
xwOBA rolling p50	0.281
Observed weight	69%

xwOBA

0.260 0.270 0.281 0.292 0.302

wOBA

0.307 0.320 0.334 0.349 0.362

ISO

0.072 0.083 0.095 0.107 0.118

K%

16.3% 17.4% 18.7% 20.0% 21.1%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%1.6%

8

Exit velocity83.4

9

Hard-hit%28.1%

11 -21 vs proj

xBA0.314

44

xSLG0.421

21

xwOBA0.284

29

BB%5.1%

15

Bat speed64.8

6

K%20.0%

67 -21 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.1 · CF

56

Arm Strength98.5 · CF

84

Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF

25

Range Runs0.5 · CF

52

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs1.2 · CF

68

Bolts65.0 · CF

95

SB Success Rate68.4% · CF

22

Sprint Speed29.6 · CF

96

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.5% · rebadged research

6

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9% · rebadged research

64

Correct Decisions60.9% · rebadged research

10

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90

10

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · borderline

14

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample

51

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266 · validated thin sample

83

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample

73

Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated

67

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.334 · validated

89

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jake Mangum's production (82) outpaces the tools grade (73) by 9 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-10.0° Current 30° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

193 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.9σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.334

xwOBA (deserved)0.284

Mangum’s wOBA sits at 0.334, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.284 — a gap of 0.050, -1.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 489 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Crawford, Justin PHI · L	0.69	Sprint speedxwOBA on contact	Player · Projection
Lukes, Nathan TOR · L	0.48	Bat speedBarrel rate	Player · Projection
Wilson, Jacob ATH · R	0.44	Hard-hit rateBarrel rate	Player · Projection
Hamilton, David MIL · L	0.44	xwOBA on contactHard-hit rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	3	2026-09-19	Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding	27	2026-09-24	2 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.313

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.290 xwOBA \| 8 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs BOS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	2-3
2026-05-20 @ STL0 HR \| 1 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| RBI, R
2026-04-14 vs WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-2
2026-04-13 vs WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| BB, 2 R
2026-04-11 @ CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| K

Age	30
Height	5' 11"
Weight	191 lb
Debut	2025-03-30

xwOBA Δ	-0.006
wOBA Δ	+0.044

Hitter Projections 20260.290 xwOBA \| 8 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs BOS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	2-3
2026-05-20 @ STL0 HR \| 1 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| RBI, R
2026-04-14 vs WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-2
2026-04-13 vs WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| BB, 2 R
2026-04-11 @ CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| K

Jake Mangum

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail