Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	528	65	112	15	32	.237	.309	.400	.709
2025	142	10	20	4	4	.160	.246	.272	.518
2026	274	28	56	8	4	.238	.339	.404	.743
8 Seasons	2522	312	545	84	75	.241	.312	.417	.729

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

59

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

61

Defense4 metrics

51

Speed3 metrics

83

Plate skills10 metrics

58

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17

xwOBA preseason	0.298
xwOBA current pace	0.327
xwOBA rolling p50	0.314
Observed weight	57%

xwOBA

0.282 0.297 0.314 0.331 0.347

wOBA

0.320 0.337 0.356 0.375 0.392

ISO

0.116 0.134 0.153 0.172 0.190

K%

21.6% 23.0% 24.5% 26.0% 27.4%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%4.5%

43

Exit velocity89.1

61

Hard-hit%41.0%

59

xBA0.341

69

xSLG0.513

51

xwOBA0.327

69 +24 vs proj

BB%13.2%

89 +52 vs proj

Bat speed70.3

60

K%22.6%

49 +21 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs2.7 · CF

98

Arm Strength96.8 · CF

76

Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF

22

Range Runs-4.7 · CF

6

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs1.8 · CF

85

Bolts12.0 · CF

72

Sprint Speed29.1 · CF

92

SB Success Rate75.0% · CF

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-17

Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.7% · rebadged research

87

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3% · rebadged research

30

Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research

64

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline

72

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample

75

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.307 · validated thin sample

7

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample

64

Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated

69

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated

41

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105

73

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Lane Thomas's tools (75) outpace production (82) by -6 points. Primary finding: high exit velocity but low barrel rate — bat-to-ball efficiency is leaving power on the table. Also flagged: Passive In-Zone Approach.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

109 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.0σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.356

xwOBA (deserved)0.327

Thomas’s wOBA sits at 0.356, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.327 — a gap of 0.030, -1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 288 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Yastrzemski, Mike ATL · L	0.70	Barrel rateSweet-spot rate	Player · Projection
Collins, Isaac KC · L	0.68	Strikeout rateWhiff rate	Player · Projection
Tucker, Kyle LAD · L	0.66	Avg exit velocityGround-ball rate	Player · Projection
Larnach, Trevor MIN · L	0.63	xwOBA on contactGround-ball rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	1	2026-07-07	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.303 xwOBA \| 11 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs BOS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1
2026-04-20 vs BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| BB, R
2026-04-17 @ NYY0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4
2026-04-15 @ DET0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K
2026-04-14 @ DET0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, SB

Age	30
Height	5' 11"
Weight	195 lb
Debut	2019-04-17

xwOBA Δ	+0.024
wOBA Δ	+0.053

Hitter Projections 20260.303 xwOBA \| 11 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs BOS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1
2026-04-20 vs BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| BB, R
2026-04-17 @ NYY0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4
2026-04-15 @ DET0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K
2026-04-14 @ DET0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, SB

Lane Thomas

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail