Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	469	63	109	19	0	.256	.322	.461	.783
2025	447	54	108	16	2	.260	.309	.428	.737
2026	621	64	124	19	9	.222	.293	.369	.662
8 Seasons	4110	544	974	188	16	.263	.328	.474	.802

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

76

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

67

Defense4 metrics

45

Speed3 metrics

58

Plate skills10 metrics

56

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.344
xwOBA current pace	0.301
xwOBA rolling p50	0.312
Observed weight	74%

xwOBA

0.292 0.301 0.312 0.323 0.333

wOBA

0.286 0.298 0.310 0.322 0.333

ISO

0.148 0.157 0.168 0.179 0.189

K%

27.3% 28.3% 29.5% 30.6% 31.6%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%7.8%

86

Exit velocity91.2

89

Hard-hit%44.2%

78 -15 vs proj

xBA0.333

68

xSLG0.619

84

xwOBA0.301

49 -39 vs proj

BB%7.7%

40

Bat speed74.0

94

K%31.1%

13 -24 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-0.0 · 3B

29

Arm Strength87.2 · 3B

51

Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B

47

Range Runs-0.0 · 3B

52

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs0.2 · 3B

45

SB Success Rate85.7% · 3B

66

Sprint Speed27.9 · 3B

61

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.8% · rebadged research

36

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4% · rebadged research

59

Correct Decisions64.8% · rebadged research

36

Resists FastballwOBA 0.324 · validated

77

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99

41

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline

82

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample

69

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263 · validated thin sample

86

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample

38

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated

40

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

256 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.4σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.310

xwOBA (deserved)0.301

Riley’s wOBA sits at 0.310, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.301 — a gap of 0.009, -0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 640 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Baty, Brett NYM · L	0.81	xwOBA on contactSwing length	Player · Projection
Crews, Dylan WSH · R	0.78	Chase rateMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Hernández, Teoscar LAD · R	0.77	Sweet-spot rateMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Lewis, Royce MIN · R	0.77	In-zone contactMax exit velocity	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	5	2026-08-12	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	29	2026-09-25	4 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.816

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.343 xwOBA \| 20 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 K
2026-05-20 @ MIA1 HR \| 3 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| HR, BB, K
2026-04-20 @ WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 1 E	0-4 \| BB, 2 K, R
2026-04-17 @ PHI2 HR \| 4 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| 2 HR, 3 K, 4 RBI
2026-04-15 vs MIA1 HR \| 1 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, 2B, RBI

Age	29
Height	6' 1"
Weight	225 lb
Debut	2019-05-15

xwOBA Δ	-0.042
wOBA Δ	-0.033

Hitter Projections 20260.343 xwOBA \| 20 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 K
2026-05-20 @ MIA1 HR \| 3 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| HR, BB, K
2026-04-20 @ WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 1 E	0-4 \| BB, 2 K, R
2026-04-17 @ PHI2 HR \| 4 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| 2 HR, 3 K, 4 RBI
2026-04-15 vs MIA1 HR \| 1 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, 2B, RBI

Austin Riley

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail