Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 29 |
| Height | 6' 1" |
| Weight | 225 lb |
| Debut | 2019-05-15 |
Player profile / Atlanta Braves
Austin Riley
3B · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 225 lb · Age 29
Club Atlanta Braves
Position 3B
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 469 | 63 | 109 | 19 | 0 | .256 | .322 | .461 | .783 |
| 2025 | 447 | 54 | 108 | 16 | 2 | .260 | .309 | .428 | .737 |
| 2026 | 289 | 31 | 52 | 8 | 4 | .203 | .287 | .348 | .635 |
| 8 Seasons | 3778 | 511 | 902 | 177 | 11 | .265 | .331 | .481 | .812 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
63
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.344 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.303 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.320 |
| Observed weight | 58% |
xwOBA
0.294
0.306
0.320
0.334
0.347
wOBA
0.288
0.304
0.322
0.340
0.356
ISO
0.152
0.166
0.182
0.198
0.212
K%
23.6%
24.9%
26.4%
27.8%
29.2%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.2%
77
Exit velocity90.9
83
Hard-hit%44.9%
72
-18 vs proj
xBA0.311
37
xSLG0.579
69
xwOBA0.303
43
-33 vs proj
BB%8.6%
47
Bat speed73.8
93
K%27.6%
22
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 3B
24
Arm Strength87.2 · 3B
62
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 3B
5
Range Runs-3.9 · 3B
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · 3B
79
Sprint Speed27.9 · 3B
66
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.5% · rebadged research
34
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6% · rebadged research
44
Correct Decisions63.2% · rebadged research
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
79
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.253 · insufficient sample
99
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
92
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
57
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
52
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.380 · validated
11
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
167 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.040 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.021 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Riley’s wOBA sits at 0.322, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.303 — a gap of 0.019, -0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 304 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2026-04-15 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.343 xwOBA | 20 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ MIA1 HR | 3 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | HR, BB, K |
| 2026-04-20 @ WSH0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 1 E | 0-4 | BB, 2 K, R |
| 2026-04-17 @ PHI2 HR | 4 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | 2 HR, 3 K, 4 RBI |
| 2026-04-15 vs MIA1 HR | 1 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | HR, 2B, RBI |
| 2026-04-14 vs MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 |