Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	635	88	170	35	6	.308	.392	.567	.959
2025	199	17	45	6	1	.273	.367	.430	.797
2026	425	65	113	31	1	.321	.431	.636	1.067
8 Seasons	3292	494	841	201	10	.300	.394	.581	.975

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

99

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

96

Defense1 metrics

11

Speed2 metrics

3

Plate skills10 metrics

27

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17

xwOBA preseason	0.391
xwOBA current pace	0.474
xwOBA rolling p50	0.446
Observed weight	66%

xwOBA

0.419 0.432 0.446 0.460 0.473

wOBA

0.432 0.447 0.463 0.479 0.494

ISO

0.238 0.255 0.274 0.293 0.310

K%

15.4% 16.6% 17.9% 19.3% 20.5%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%12.0%

99

Exit velocity94.7

99

Hard-hit%53.1%

96

xBA0.422

99

xSLG0.899

99

xwOBA0.474

100

BB%14.5%

96 +18 vs proj

Bat speed74.9

98

K%17.8%

75

Defense · percentile strip

Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF

11

Arm Runs-0.3 · LF

Small sample

Range Runs-1.6 · LF

Small sample

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-3.4 · DH

1

Sprint Speed24.8 · DH

4

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-17

Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.9% · rebadged research

62

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0% · rebadged research

62

Correct Decisions65.7% · rebadged research

44

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104

68

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.346 · borderline

1

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample

0

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302 · validated thin sample

10

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample

14

Resists FastballwOBA 0.404 · validated

2

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389 · validated

7

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Yordan Álvarez's tools (86) outpace production (77) by 9 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-17.0° Current 37° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

197 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.463

xwOBA (deserved)0.474

Álvarez’s wOBA sits at 0.463, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.474 — a gap of 0.011, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 433 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Ohtani, Shohei LAD · L	0.42	Walk rateHard-hit rate	Player · Projection
Bauers, Jake MIL · L	0.35	Swing lengthBat speed	Player · Projection
Judge, Aaron NYY · R	0.32	Barrel rateAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection
Trout, Mike LAA · R	0.32	Pull rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	7	2026-07-11	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.392 xwOBA \| 18 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-4
2026-04-20 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-5
2026-04-17 vs STL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| HR, RBI, R
2026-04-15 vs COL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-3 \| HR, 2B, BB
2026-04-14 vs COL0 HR \| 2 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, K, 2 RBI

Age	29
Height	6' 4"
Weight	237 lb
Debut	2019-06-09

xwOBA Δ	+0.082
wOBA Δ	+0.071

Hitter Projections 20260.392 xwOBA \| 18 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-4
2026-04-20 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-5
2026-04-17 vs STL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| HR, RBI, R
2026-04-15 vs COL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-3 \| HR, 2B, BB
2026-04-14 vs COL0 HR \| 2 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, K, 2 RBI

Yordan Álvarez

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail