Section III · Betting · Price comparison
Model-market gaps.
Largest market gaps, paired with the model-health context needed to interpret them.
WATCH MODE largest lane gaps
THRESHOLDS ≤5pp aligned · 6-10pp soft · >10pp split
HEALTH scheduled lane metrics
Top half · disagreement leaderboard
| # | Selection | Market | Three lanes | Spread | Market fair | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Victor Scott IISTL vs MIL |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
5.2
F
0.0
V
10.5
FULL
|
10.5 pts | 7.7% | Valinor sees 10.5%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 10.5 pts. Market fair: 7.7%. |
| 02 | Luke KeaschallMIN vs TEX |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
8.1
F
0.0
V
9.9
FULL
|
9.9 pts | 10.6% | Valinor sees 9.9%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 9.9 pts. Market fair: 10.6%. |
| 03 | Chase MeidrothCWS vs COL |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
5.0
F
7.3
V
11.2
FULL
|
6.3 pts | 7.7% | Valinor sees 11.2%; Palantir sees 5.0%; gap of 6.3 pts. Market fair: 7.7%. |
| 04 | Luis ArraezSF vs LAD |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
4.2
F
7.3
V
10.0
FULL
|
5.9 pts | 8.0% | Valinor sees 10.0%; Palantir sees 4.2%; gap of 5.9 pts. Market fair: 8.0%. |
| 05 | Jake MangumPIT vs DET |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
5.1
F
6.0
V
10.7
FULL
|
5.6 pts | 8.0% | Valinor sees 10.7%; Palantir sees 5.1%; gap of 5.6 pts. Market fair: 8.0%. |
Bottom half · model-health audit
| Market | Lane | Logged | Brier | ECE | Trend | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home_runs | palantirrecalibrated |
21711 | 0.1180 | 0.0044 | 14d stable | healthy |
| home_runs | fangornrecalibrated |
21711 | 0.1182 | 0.0050 | 14d stable | healthy |
| home_runs | valinorrecalibrated |
16023 | 0.1141 | 0.0014 | 14d stable | healthy |
| strikeouts | palantirrecalibrated |
1947 | 0.2481 | 0.0112 | 14d stable | calibration review |
| strikeouts | fangornskipped_insufficient_sample |
53 | 0.2569 | 0.1190 | sample building | sample building |
| strikeouts | valinorrecalibrated |
1443 | 0.2482 | 0.0083 | 14d stable | healthy |
| total_bases | palantirrecalibrated |
10429 | 0.2384 | 0.0388 | 14d stable | healthy |
| total_bases | fangornskipped_insufficient_sample |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| total_bases | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| hits | palantirskipped_insufficient_validation_split |
850 | 0.1665 | 0.0363 | 14d error rising | calibration review |
| hits | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| hits | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| pitcher_outs | palantirrecalibrated |
1088 | 0.2554 | 0.0532 | 14d stable | healthy |
| pitcher_outs | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| pitcher_outs | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | palantirskipped_insufficient_sample |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |