Section III · Betting · Edge Watch
Market gaps · and our own model health.
The top half surfaces the largest live lane splits. The bottom half audits whether the lanes are calibrated enough to trust.
WATCH MODE largest lane gaps
THRESHOLDS ≤5pp aligned · 6-10pp soft · >10pp split
HEALTH scheduled lane metrics
Top half · disagreement leaderboard
| # | Selection | Market | Three lanes | Spread | Market fair | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Christian YelichMIL vs MIA |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
21.3
F
18.1
V
15.2
FULL
|
6.1 pts | 16.4% | Palantir sees 21.3%; Valinor sees 15.2%; gap of 6.1 pts. Market fair: 16.4%. |
| 02 | Lane ThomasKC vs SD |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
10.9
F
13.0
V
17.0
FULL
|
6.0 pts | 12.6% | Valinor sees 17.0%; Palantir sees 10.9%; gap of 6.0 pts. Market fair: 12.6%. |
| 03 | Wyatt LangfordTEX vs ATL |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
18.4
F
15.0
V
12.5
FULL
|
5.9 pts | 14.9% | Palantir sees 18.4%; Valinor sees 12.5%; gap of 5.9 pts. Market fair: 14.9%. |
| 04 | Luis ArraezSF vs SEA |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
7.4
F
12.7
V
12.8
FULL
|
5.4 pts | 7.7% | Valinor sees 12.8%; Palantir sees 7.4%; gap of 5.4 pts. Market fair: 7.7%. |
| 05 | Brice TurangMIL vs MIA |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
17.3
F
15.0
V
11.9
FULL
|
5.4 pts | 10.0% | Palantir sees 17.3%; Valinor sees 11.9%; gap of 5.4 pts. Market fair: 10.0%. |
| 06 | Iván HerreraSTL vs AZ |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
18.5
F
15.0
V
13.3
FULL
|
5.2 pts | 12.6% | Palantir sees 18.5%; Valinor sees 13.3%; gap of 5.2 pts. Market fair: 12.6%. |
| 07 | Trevor LarnachMIN vs CHC |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
16.2
F
15.0
V
11.1
FULL
|
5.1 pts | 12.0% | Palantir sees 16.2%; Valinor sees 11.1%; gap of 5.1 pts. Market fair: 12.0%. |
Bottom half · model-health audit
| Market | Lane | Logged | Brier | ECE | Trend | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home_runs | palantirrecalibrated |
9378 | 0.1245 | 0.0100 | 14d stable | healthy |
| home_runs | fangornrecalibrated |
9378 | 0.1247 | 0.0115 | 14d stable | healthy |
| home_runs | valinorrecalibrated |
3783 | 0.1188 | 0.0064 | 14d stable | healthy |
| strikeouts | palantirskipped_insufficient_validation_split |
453 | 0.2452 | 0.0044 | sample building | sample building |
| strikeouts | fangornskipped_insufficient_sample |
18 | 0.2429 | 0.0802 | sample building | sample building |
| strikeouts | valinorskipped_insufficient_sample |
32 | 0.2360 | 0.2204 | sample building | sample building |
| total_bases | palantirrecalibrated |
3223 | 0.2400 | 0.1028 | sample building | sample building |
| total_bases | fangornskipped_insufficient_sample |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| total_bases | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| hits | palantirskipped_insufficient_sample |
137 | 0.1529 | 0.0251 | sample building | sample building |
| hits | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| hits | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| pitcher_outs | palantirrecalibrated |
328 | 0.2650 | 0.0830 | sample building | sample building |
| pitcher_outs | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| pitcher_outs | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | palantirskipped_insufficient_sample |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |