Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 28 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 204 lb |
| Debut | 2023-06-18 |
Player profile / Pittsburgh Pirates
Spencer Horwitz
1B · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 10", 204 lb · Age 28
Club Pittsburgh Pirates
Position 1B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 381 | 46 | 87 | 12 | 0 | .265 | .357 | .433 | .790 |
| 2025 | 411 | 55 | 99 | 11 | 0 | .272 | .353 | .434 | .787 |
| 2026 | 447 | 44 | 94 | 10 | 1 | .246 | .345 | .366 | .711 |
| 4 Seasons | 1283 | 150 | 290 | 34 | 1 | .261 | .351 | .409 | .760 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
32
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.322 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.311 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.315 |
| Observed weight | 68% |
xwOBA
0.294
0.304
0.315
0.325
0.335
wOBA
0.307
0.321
0.335
0.350
0.364
ISO
0.110
0.121
0.133
0.146
0.157
K%
14.4%
15.5%
16.8%
18.0%
19.1%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
38
Exit velocity86.7
37
Hard-hit%30.3%
18
-18 vs proj
xBA0.281
14
xSLG0.428
24
xwOBA0.311
58
BB%11.7%
86
+20 vs proj
Bat speed67.1
22
K%15.8%
87
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 1B
8
Range Runs-3.7 · 1B
19
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.8 · 1B
4
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.2% · rebadged research
86
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.6% · rebadged research
36
Correct Decisions67.2% · rebadged research
61
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.309 · borderline
18
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · insufficient sample
12
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
47
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
87
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363 · validated
36
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
253 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.015 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Horwitz’s wOBA sits at 0.335, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.311 — a gap of 0.024, -0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 462 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly, Carson CHC · R | 0.78 | Barrel rateSweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
| Crawford, J.P. SEA · L | 0.70 | Isolated powerBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Hicks, Liam MIA · L | 0.70 | xwOBA on contactChase rate | Player · Projection |
| Rumfield, TJ COL · L | 0.69 | Sprint speedGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielding | 23 | 2026-09-22 | 3 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.461 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.320 xwOBA | 13 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs BOS0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, K |
| 2026-05-20 @ STL1 HR | 1 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E | 1-5 | HR, K, RBI |
| 2026-04-17 vs TB0 HR | 1 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E | 3-3 | 2B, BB, RBI |
| 2026-04-15 vs WSH0 HR | 0 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | HBP, K |
| 2026-04-14 vs WSH0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 |