Mithrandir Metrics
Player Detroit Tigers Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Detroit Tigers

Zach Mckinstry

RF · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 180 lb · Age 31

Cards
30
Modules
2
Live Δ
yes
Club Detroit Tigers Position RF Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
20243253264416.215.277.337.614
2025511681171219.259.333.438.771
2026420427443.201.290.296.586
7 Seasons21382434314162.225.298.365.663
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
14
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
27
Defense4 metrics
88
Speed3 metrics
33
Plate skills12 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
xwOBA preseason0.307
xwOBA current pace0.286
xwOBA rolling p500.293
Observed weight67%
xwOBA
0.272 0.282 0.293 0.304 0.314
wOBA
0.277 0.290 0.305 0.320 0.333
ISO
0.093 0.104 0.117 0.129 0.140
K%
16.2% 17.1% 18.1% 19.1% 20.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.4%
6 -30 vs proj
Exit velocity84.8
18
Hard-hit%22.3%
5 -21 vs proj
xBA0.285
16
xSLG0.383
8
xwOBA0.286
31 -26 vs proj
BB%9.6%
65 +17 vs proj
Bat speed65.9
11
K%16.2%
86 +24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs4.4 · RF
98
Arm Strength96.6 · RF
70
Outs Above Avg4.0 · RF
93
Range Runs6.2 · RF
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · RF
32
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
4
Sprint Speed27.9 · RF
61
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.4% · rebadged research
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.3% · rebadged research
38
Correct Decisions68.3% · rebadged research
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
54
Fastball Stuff+32
0
Mithrandir Stuff+20
0
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
58
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
28
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.256 · validated thin sample
93
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
93
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326 · validated
74
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339 · validated
83
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA McKinstry, Zach · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.286 2026-09-13: 0.2842026-09-14: 0.2852026-09-18: 0.2842026-09-19: 0.2832026-09-20: 0.2832026-09-21: 0.2832026-09-22: 0.2832026-09-23: 0.2832026-09-24: 0.2842026-09-25: 0.2842026-09-26: 0.2842026-09-27: 0.286 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

1Pitches 2025Season 100%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile McKinstry, Zach · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 52%52%Chase: 28%28%Whiff: 14%14%Zone contact: 93%93%Contact: 86%86%Hard hit: 22%22% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McKinstry, Zach · 2025 arsenal snapshot Eephus: 100.0% EP100% · 36 mphprimary pitch EP 100% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McKinstry, Zach · 2025 arsenal snapshot 6″12″18″24″ Eephus: 100% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 36.0 mphEP36 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 100.0% 29 32 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height5' 11"
Weight180 lb
Debut2020-09-16
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ-0.023
wOBA Δ-0.005

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.7σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.305
xwOBA (deserved)0.286

Mckinstry’s wOBA sits at 0.305, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.286 — a gap of 0.019, -0.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 439 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →
PlayerSimilarityAgrees onOpen
Keaschall, Luke MIN · R 0.73 Avg exit velocitySweet-spot rate Player · Projection
Straw, Myles TOR · R 0.66 Ground-ball rateFly-ball rate Player · Projection
Martin, Austin MIN · R 0.63 Sprint speedSwing length Player · Projection
Monasterio, Andruw BOS · R 0.63 Chase rateOppo rate Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting32026-07-27Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding272026-09-266 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.024
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.309 xwOBA | 11 HRProjection
2026-08-15 vs CWS0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E0-1 | K
2026-05-20 vs CLE0 HR | 1 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E2-4 | K, RBI
2026-04-15 vs KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E1-2 | K
2026-04-14 vs KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E1-3 | 2B, R
2026-04-12 vs MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E1-4