Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 31 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 180 lb |
| Debut | 2020-09-16 |
Player profile / Detroit Tigers
Zach Mckinstry
2B · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 180 lb · Age 31
Club Detroit Tigers
Position 2B
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 325 | 32 | 64 | 4 | 16 | .215 | .277 | .337 | .614 |
| 2025 | 511 | 68 | 117 | 12 | 19 | .259 | .333 | .438 | .771 |
| 2026 | 248 | 21 | 43 | 4 | 1 | .197 | .278 | .298 | .576 |
| 7 Seasons | 1966 | 222 | 400 | 41 | 60 | .227 | .297 | .371 | .668 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
10
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.307 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.274 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.289 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.265
0.276
0.289
0.302
0.313
wOBA
0.283
0.301
0.320
0.339
0.356
ISO
0.097
0.111
0.127
0.143
0.158
K%
16.8%
17.9%
19.2%
20.4%
21.5%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
12
-22 vs proj
Exit velocity83.4
8
Hard-hit%20.1%
3
-22 vs proj
xBA0.276
12
xSLG0.378
7
xwOBA0.274
19
-33 vs proj
BB%9.4%
60
Bat speed66.8
18
K%16.9%
81
+21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · 2B
3
Arm Strength96.6 · 2B
97
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 2B
85
Range Runs4.6 · 2B
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · 2B
24
Sprint Speed27.9 · 2B
65
SB Success Rate33.3% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.3% · rebadged research
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.2% · rebadged research
23
Correct Decisions68.2% · rebadged research
71
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · borderline
36
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
88
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
62
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.304 · validated
95
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
44
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
127 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.035 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.011 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Mckinstry’s wOBA sits at 0.320, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.274 — a gap of 0.046, -1.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 267 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keaschall, Luke MIN · R | 0.70 | Bat speedWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| Vivas, Jorbit WSH · L | 0.68 | Isolated powerPull rate | Player · Projection |
| Palacios, Richie TB · L | 0.68 | Isolated powerBat speed | Player · Projection |
| McNeil, Jeff ATH · L | 0.65 | Pull rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2026-04-04 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.309 xwOBA | 11 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 vs CLE0 HR | 1 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | K, RBI |
| 2026-04-15 vs KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | K |
| 2026-04-14 vs KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | 2B, R |
| 2026-04-12 vs MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 |
| 2026-04-11 vs MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |