Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	177	15	41	6	2	.248	.299	.424	.723
2025	653	93	159	45	7	.264	.311	.535	.846
2026	411	61	99	28	2	.279	.372	.555	.927
4 Seasons	1277	173	307	80	11	.266	.328	.520	.848

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16

91

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

89

Defense4 metrics

46

Speed2 metrics

19

Plate skills10 metrics

50

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16

xwOBA preseason	0.345
xwOBA current pace	0.372
xwOBA rolling p50	0.363
Observed weight	66%

xwOBA

0.340 0.351 0.363 0.375 0.385

wOBA

0.381 0.395 0.411 0.427 0.441

ISO

0.227 0.239 0.252 0.266 0.278

K%

16.6% 17.6% 18.7% 19.9% 20.9%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%9.6%

94

Exit velocity93.5

97

Hard-hit%52.8%

96

xBA0.349

77

xSLG0.647

86

xwOBA0.372

94

BB%12.6%

88 +56 vs proj

Bat speed78.3

100

K%18.6%

71

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.2 · 3B

77

Arm Strength90.2 · 3B

78

Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B

28

Range Runs-9.6 · 3B

1

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-1.1 · 3B

14

Sprint Speed26.3 · 3B

24

SB Success Rate0.0% · 3B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-16

Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.6% · rebadged research

65

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.3% · rebadged research

88

Correct Decisions66.7% · rebadged research

57

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108

85

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.262 · borderline

92

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample

28

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample

75

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.363 · insufficient sample

7

Resists FastballwOBA 0.424 · validated

0

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.405 · validated

2

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Junior Caminero's tools (82) outpace production (78) by 5 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+20.7° Current -5° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

210 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.4σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.411

xwOBA (deserved)0.372

Caminero’s wOBA sits at 0.411, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.372 — a gap of 0.039, -1.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 429 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Contreras, Willson BOS · R	0.42	Oppo rateIsolated power	Player · Projection
Walker, Jordan STL · R	0.40	Barrel rateHard-hit rate	Player · Projection
Marte, Ketel AZ · L	0.38	Max exit velocitySprint speed	Player · Projection
Caglianone, Jac KC · L	0.38	Pull rateAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	6	2026-07-10	Impact contact was the main driver

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.345 xwOBA \| 31 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-4
2026-04-20 vs CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4
2026-04-17 @ PIT0 HR \| 1 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI
2026-04-15 @ CWS1 HR \| 2 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| HR, BB, K
2026-04-14 @ CWS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 1 E	0-3 \| 2 BB, R, CS

Age	23
Height	6' 1"
Weight	220 lb
Debut	2023-09-23

xwOBA Δ	+0.027
wOBA Δ	+0.066

Hitter Projections 20260.345 xwOBA \| 31 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-4
2026-04-20 vs CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4
2026-04-17 @ PIT0 HR \| 1 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI
2026-04-15 @ CWS1 HR \| 2 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| HR, BB, K
2026-04-14 @ CWS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 1 E	0-3 \| 2 BB, R, CS

Junior Caminero

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail