Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 29 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 235 lb |
| Debut | 2019-05-24 |
Player profile / Seattle Mariners
Josh Naylor
1B · Bats/Throws L/L · 5' 10", 235 lb · Age 29
Club Seattle Mariners
Position 1B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 633 | 84 | 137 | 31 | 6 | .243 | .320 | .456 | .776 |
| 2025 | 604 | 81 | 160 | 20 | 30 | .295 | .353 | .462 | .815 |
| 2026 | 641 | 58 | 155 | 10 | 29 | .263 | .319 | .351 | .670 |
| 8 Seasons | 3504 | 392 | 852 | 114 | 84 | .268 | .328 | .430 | .758 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
40
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.322 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.312 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.314 |
| Observed weight | 75% |
xwOBA
0.294
0.304
0.314
0.325
0.335
wOBA
0.293
0.304
0.316
0.328
0.339
ISO
0.091
0.100
0.111
0.121
0.130
K%
11.4%
12.2%
13.0%
13.8%
14.6%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.5%
30
-28 vs proj
Exit velocity86.9
39
Hard-hit%36.0%
39
-25 vs proj
xBA0.313
44
xSLG0.443
29
xwOBA0.312
60
BB%6.7%
30
-16 vs proj
Bat speed67.9
28
K%12.3%
96
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
80
Range Runs1.4 · 1B
69
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.6 · 1B
11
SB Success Rate92.3% · 1B
84
Sprint Speed24.3 · 1B
1
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.4% · rebadged research
16
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research
50
Correct Decisions62.8% · rebadged research
21
Resists FastballwOBA 0.369 · validated
11
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
77
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.248 · insufficient sample
99
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
79
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.362 · insufficient sample
4
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.326 · validated
95
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.005 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Naylor’s wOBA sits at 0.316, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.312 — a gap of 0.004, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 656 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| McNeil, Jeff ATH · L | 0.68 | Strikeout rateFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Vargas, Ildemaro AZ · L | 0.67 | Chase rateAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Heim, Jonah ATH · L | 0.64 | Avg exit velocitySwing length | Player · Projection |
| Rocchio, Brayan CLE · L | 0.58 | Bat speedWalk rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 10 | 2026-08-24 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 32 | 2026-09-25 | 1 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +0.094 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.321 xwOBA | 22 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 11 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | 3 K, 2 R |
| 2026-05-20 vs CWS0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |
| 2026-04-20 vs ATH0 HR | 1 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E | 3-4 | 2 2B, RBI, SB |
| 2026-04-17 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 2-2 | 2 BB |
| 2026-04-15 @ SD0 HR | 0 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E | 0-5 | 3 K |