{
  "date": "2026-04-06",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-06T08:00:22.105486",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 162,
    "odds_matched_count": 95,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 26,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-06",
      "player_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_id": 608369,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 822918,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2055,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2301,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2056,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-06",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824376,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1983,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.221,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1984,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.49,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-06",
      "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_id": 592885,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 824783,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2028,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2267,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2029,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-06",
      "player_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_id": 621566,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "LAA",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAA",
      "game_id": 824052,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1873,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2074,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1875,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.19,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-06",
      "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_id": 607043,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 822918,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 515,
      "over_odds": 515,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2071,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2321,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2073,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-06",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824456,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1892,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2097,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1893,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.16,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-06",
      "player_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_id": 545361,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824052,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 410,
      "over_odds": 410,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1779,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1959,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1781,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.37,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-06",
      "player_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_id": 687263,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824052,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.183,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2021,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1831,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.3,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-06",
      "player_name": "Bryan Reynolds",
      "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds",
      "hitter_id": 668804,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823401,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 615,
      "over_odds": 615,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1966,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2189,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1967,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.98,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-06",
      "player_name": "Roman Anthony",
      "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony",
      "hitter_id": 701350,
      "team": "BOS",
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 824783,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 705,
      "over_odds": 705,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.182,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2009,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1822,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 39.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Corey Seager",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2055,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1983,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.49
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2028,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Olson",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "LAA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1873,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.19
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 515,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2071,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1892,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.16
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mike Trout",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 410,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1779,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.37
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Zach Neto",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.183,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.3
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bryan Reynolds",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 615,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1966,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.98
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Roman Anthony",
        "team": "BOS",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 705,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.182,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 39.6
      }
    ]
  }
}