Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-26 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-09-26

0 activated plays

Gap rows 168

Unique hitters 0

Avg gap --

Avg odds --

Older: 2026-09-25

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0

Average Gap --

Unique Hitters 0

Average Odds --

2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20 2026-09-19

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

No plus-money HR market signals were found in the saved artifact for this slate.

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Carlos Santana

AZ vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.11%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +610 / U -890

+5.11%

13.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +605 / U -840

+5.01%

13.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +605 / U --

+5.01%

14.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jacob Wilson

ATH vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +4.71%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 13.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1005 / U -1700

+4.71%

8.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +985 / U --

+4.54%

9.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +980 / U -1795

+4.50%

8.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.7

Geraldo Perdomo

AZ vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +4.15%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 13.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +935 / U -1520

+4.15%

9.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +920 / U --

+4.01%

9.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +915 / U -1605

+3.96%

9.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.2

Lawrence Butler

ATH vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +4.08%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +545 / U -775

+4.08%

14.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +540 / U -725

+3.96%

15.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +540 / U --

+3.96%

15.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Tyler Soderstrom

ATH vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +4.02%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +585 / U -845

+4.02%

14.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +580 / U -795

+3.91%

14.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +580 / U --

+3.91%

14.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Evan Carter

TEX vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.70%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +780 / U -1175

+3.70%

11.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +775 / U -1245

+3.63%

11.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +775 / U --

+3.63%

11.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Daniel Schneemann

CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.51%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +810 / U -1230

+3.51%

10.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +800 / U -1305

+3.39%

10.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +800 / U --

+3.39%

11.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jonathan India

KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.43%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 13.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +920 / U -1485

+3.43%

9.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +905 / U --

+3.28%

10.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +900 / U -1570

+3.23%

9.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Austin Hays

CWS vs COL | Jose Quintana | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +3.29%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +725 / U -1060

+3.29%

11.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +725 / U -1125

+3.29%

11.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +720 / U --

+3.21%

12.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Edouard Julien

COL vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.28%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +790 / U -1195

+3.28%

10.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +785 / U -1270

+3.22%

10.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +785 / U --

+3.22%

11.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Wyatt Langford

TEX vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +3.11%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +570 / U -815

+3.11%

14.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +565 / U -765

+3.00%

14.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +565 / U --

+3.00%

15.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT vs DET | Justin Verlander | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.08%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +640 / U -895

+3.08%

13.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +640 / U -955

+3.08%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +635 / U --

+2.98%

13.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Alec Burleson

STL vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.02%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +625 / U -870

+3.02%

13.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +625 / U -925

+3.02%

13.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +625 / U --

+3.02%

13.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Brandon Nimmo

TEX vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +2.95%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +515 / U -715

+2.95%

15.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +510 / U --

+2.82%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +505 / U -670

+2.68%

16.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bryan Reynolds

PIT vs DET | Justin Verlander | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +2.78%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -900

+2.78%

13.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +610 / U -850

+2.69%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+2.69%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Nick Kurtz

ATH vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +2.67%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 21.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +265 / U -320

+2.67%

26.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +280 / U -345

+1.33%

25.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +270 / U --

-5.89%

27.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Spencer Horwitz

PIT vs DET | Justin Verlander | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +2.48%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +755 / U -1115

+2.48%

11.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +750 / U -1185

+2.42%

11.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +745 / U --

+2.35%

11.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Corbin Carroll

AZ vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.45%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +450 / U -610

+2.45%

17.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

+2.28%

18.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +440 / U -570

+2.11%

17.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Willi Castro

COL vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.43%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +885 / U -1400

+2.43%

9.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +870 / U -1480

+2.27%

9.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +870 / U --

+2.27%

10.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.3

Brenton Doyle

COL vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +2.42%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +705 / U -1015

+2.42%

12.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +700 / U -1080

+2.34%

12.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +700 / U --

+2.34%

12.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bo Naylor

CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +2.35%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +620 / U -860

+2.35%

13.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +620 / U -915

+2.35%

13.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +620 / U --

+2.35%

13.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Trevor Larnach

MIN vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap +2.11%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +705 / U -1020

+2.11%

12.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +705 / U -1085

+2.11%

11.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +700 / U --

+2.03%

12.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Lane Thomas

KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +2.10%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -955

+2.10%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1015

+2.10%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+2.10%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ezequiel Tovar

COL vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +2.09%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -950

+2.09%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1010

+2.09%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +665 / U --

+2.01%

13.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.2

Byron Buxton

MIN vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.90%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -465

+1.90%

20.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +385 / U -500

+0.87%

19.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +375 / U --

-5.25%

21.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Josh Bell

MIN vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.82%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +550 / U -780

+1.82%

14.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +545 / U -730

+1.70%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +545 / U --

+1.70%

15.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Andrew Benintendi

CWS vs COL | Jose Quintana | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.73%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +725 / U -1060

+1.73%

11.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +720 / U -1125

+1.65%

11.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +720 / U --

+1.65%

12.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.4

Tyler Fitzgerald

SF vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +1.59%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +730 / U -1075

+1.59%

11.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +730 / U -1140

+1.59%

11.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +725 / U --

+1.52%

12.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Joc Pederson

TEX vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.55%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +580 / U -830

+1.55%

14.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +575 / U -780

+1.45%

14.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +575 / U --

+1.45%

14.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.19%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+1.19%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+0.88%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+0.88%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Iván Herrera

STL vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.15%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -955

+1.15%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1015

+1.15%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+1.15%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.13%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +470 / U -640

+1.13%

16.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -600

+0.97%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+0.97%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Heliot Ramos

SF vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.12%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +600 / U -825

+1.12%

13.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +600 / U -875

+1.12%

13.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +600 / U --

+1.12%

14.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Steven Kwan

CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.09%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1010 / U -1720

+1.09%

8.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +990 / U --

+0.93%

9.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +985 / U -1815

+0.88%

8.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.1

Brandon Lowe

PIT vs DET | Justin Verlander | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.92%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +385 / U -485

+0.92%

19.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +395 / U -520

-0.04%

19.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +390 / U --

-4.24%

20.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Marcell Ozuna

PIT vs DET | Justin Verlander | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.86%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -465

+0.86%

20.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +380 / U -495

-0.03%

20.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +375 / U --

-4.21%

21.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Hunter Goodman

COL vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.77%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -585

+0.77%

17.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +465 / U -625

-0.04%

17.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

-4.19%

18.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Rafael Devers

SF vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.71%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +390 / U -495

+0.71%

19.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +400 / U -530

-0.23%

19.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +395 / U --

-4.10%

20.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Edgar Quero

CWS vs COL | Jose Quintana | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +0.60%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 8.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+0.60%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+0.60%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+0.60%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.1

Brent Rooker

ATH vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.36%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 21.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -480

+0.36%

20.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +365 / U --

+0.13%

21.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +360 / U -450

-0.10%

21.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Matt Chapman

SF vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.28%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +505 / U -695

+0.28%

15.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +500 / U --

+0.14%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +495 / U -655

+0.00%

16.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Matt Wallner

MIN vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.26%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +395 / U -500

+0.26%

19.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +405 / U -535

-0.66%

19.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +400 / U --

-3.59%

20.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Victor Scott II

STL vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.23%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 8.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+0.23%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+0.23%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+0.23%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.5

Corey Seager

TEX vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.12%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +340 / U -420

-0.12%

22.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +350 / U -450

-1.17%

21.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +345 / U --

-3.12%

22.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jake Burger

TEX vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.13%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +415 / U -530

-0.13%

18.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +425 / U -570

-1.07%

18.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +420 / U --

-3.23%

19.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Chase Meidroth

CWS vs COL | Jose Quintana | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.33%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 7.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-0.33%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-0.33%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-0.33%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.5

Salvador Perez

KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.63%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +460 / U -625

-0.63%

17.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

-0.79%

18.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +450 / U -585

-0.95%

17.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Luis Arraez

SF vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.95%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 5.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-0.95%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-1.45%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-2.55%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 104.5

Ketel Marte

AZ vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.99%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +380 / U -495

-0.99%

20.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +375 / U --

-1.21%

21.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +370 / U -465

-1.44%

20.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Shea Langeliers

ATH vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -1.04%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +390 / U -505

-1.04%

19.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +380 / U --

-1.46%

20.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +375 / U -470

-1.68%

20.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jake Mangum

PIT vs DET | Justin Verlander | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.09%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 5.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-1.09%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-1.59%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-2.41%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.4

José Ramírez

CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.25%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +395 / U -520

-1.25%

19.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +390 / U --

-1.46%

20.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +385 / U -485

-1.67%

19.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Luke Keaschall

MIN vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.33%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +820 / U -1255

-1.33%

10.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +810 / U -1330

-1.45%

10.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +810 / U --

-1.45%

11.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.2

Willy Adames

SF vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -1.50%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +445 / U -570

-1.50%

17.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +455 / U -610

-1.59%

17.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

-1.92%

18.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Kyle Manzardo

CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -1.54%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -650

-1.54%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

-1.69%

17.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -610

-1.77%

17.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Royce Lewis

MIN vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -1.59%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +535 / U -715

-1.59%

15.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +540 / U -760

-1.76%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

-1.89%

15.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 480

Latest Date 2026-09-26

Latest Signals 0

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-09-26 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	168 matched 0 unmatched	0 / 6 / 40 Strong / Play / Lean	0 -- \| --	-- Signals --
2026-09-25 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	315 matched 51 unmatched	1 / 21 / 64 Strong / Play / Lean	0 -- \| --	-- Signals --
2026-09-24 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	174 matched 0 unmatched	0 / 26 / 20 Strong / Play / Lean	3 Corbin Carroll \| 32.7	-- Signals --
2026-09-23 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	222 matched 0 unmatched	1 / 17 / 30 Strong / Play / Lean	0 -- \| --	-- Signals --
2026-09-22 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	243 matched 42 unmatched	1 / 30 / 31 Strong / Play / Lean	1 Carlos Santana \| 27.2	-- Signals --
2026-09-21 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	33 matched 0 unmatched	0 / 0 / 15 Strong / Play / Lean	0 -- \| --	-- Signals --
2026-09-20 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	258 matched 0 unmatched	14 / 41 / 66 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Jeremy Peña \| 37.3	-- Signals --
2026-09-19 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	333 matched 0 unmatched	1 / 75 / 77 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 33.5	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373

Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025

Over Hit Rate 15.8%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%