Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-06-15 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-06-15
0 activated plays
Gap rows 168
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Older: 2026-06-14

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12 2026-06-11 2026-06-10 2026-06-09 2026-06-08

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Cj Abrams

Strong

WSH vs KC | Mitch Spence

Value Score 39.6
Odds / Gap +590 / +7.78%
1+ HR 22.3%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.013x

Value Rank #2

Ezequiel Tovar

Strong

COL vs CHC | Shota Imanaga

Value Score 39.5
Odds / Gap +645 / +8.11%
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.018x

Value Rank #3

Yandy Díaz

Play

TB vs LAD | Eric Lauer

Value Score 33.9
Odds / Gap +550 / +6.51%
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.970x

Value Rank #4

Brenton Doyle

Strong

COL vs CHC | Shota Imanaga

Value Score 33.4
Odds / Gap +655 / +7.26%
1+ HR 20.5%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.018x

Value Rank #5

Ryan O'Hearn

Play

PIT vs ATH | J.t. Ginn

Value Score 31.8
Odds / Gap +640 / +6.97%
1+ HR 20.5%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.016x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +8.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+8.11%
12.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +640 / U -905
+8.02%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+8.02%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.9
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs KC | Mitch Spence | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+7.78%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+7.67%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+7.67%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs KC | Mitch Spence | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +7.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+7.72%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+7.65%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+7.65%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.7
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +875 / U -1380
+7.65%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +865 / U --
+7.55%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1460
+7.49%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.3
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.44%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+7.44%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+7.31%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+7.31%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jordan Beck headshot

Jordan Beck
COL vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 7
Strong
Best Gap +7.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +870 / U -1375
+7.43%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1455
+7.32%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +860 / U --
+7.32%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.26%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+7.26%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+7.26%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+7.18%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+7.20%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+7.08%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+7.08%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs KC | Mitch Spence | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.07%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+7.07%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+7.07%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+6.98%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.07%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+7.07%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+5.36%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-9.89%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+6.97%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+6.97%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+6.87%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+6.77%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+6.68%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+6.68%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs KC | Mitch Spence | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.58%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+6.58%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+6.47%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+6.42%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+6.51%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+6.39%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+6.39%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.48%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+6.48%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+6.42%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+6.35%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+6.23%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+6.13%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+6.13%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +5.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+5.41%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+5.26%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+5.26%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.39%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+5.39%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+5.27%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+5.27%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+4.69%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+4.58%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+4.58%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+4.28%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+4.28%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+4.28%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +4.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+4.21%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+4.05%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+3.97%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.7
Ryan Jeffers headshot

Ryan Jeffers
MIN vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+4.03%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+4.03%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +675 / U --
+4.03%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+3.79%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+3.66%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+3.66%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+3.76%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+3.64%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+3.64%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+3.67%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+3.55%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+3.55%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs KC | Mitch Spence | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+3.67%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+3.37%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+3.37%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+3.51%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+3.40%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+3.40%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.48%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+3.48%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.34%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+3.20%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs KC | Mitch Spence | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.41%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.41%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.41%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+3.21%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+3.13%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+3.13%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+2.71%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+2.52%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+2.33%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+2.59%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+2.48%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+2.48%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+2.46%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+1.12%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-5.68%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+2.09%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.96%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+1.83%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+1.88%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+1.56%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.56%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.83%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +785 / U -1180
+1.83%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1250
+1.70%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+1.70%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.7
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+1.61%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+1.46%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+1.46%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
+1.50%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+1.36%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
+1.21%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+1.03%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+0.86%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
+0.68%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.94%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.94%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.94%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 104.7
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.93%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +335 / U -415
+0.93%
22.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -445
-0.14%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +340 / U --
-4.24%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.53%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.53%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.53%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.5
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+0.34%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+0.19%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+0.04%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+0.31%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+0.13%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.05%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
+0.31%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+0.17%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+0.03%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -560
+0.30%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+0.11%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -525
-0.08%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+0.22%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -695
+0.09%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+0.09%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+0.21%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+0.03%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-0.15%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+0.10%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-0.89%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-3.39%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+0.08%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-0.13%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-0.34%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-0.29%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-0.51%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.74%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.31%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.81%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.19%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.6
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-0.35%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-1.23%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-3.00%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.49%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-1.32%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.87%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-0.50%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-0.67%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
-0.84%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.32%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-1.50%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.69%
18.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 392
Latest Date 2026-06-15
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-11
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 180 matched
0 unmatched
 30 / 38 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 51.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-10
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
0 unmatched
 21 / 37 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 47.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-09
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 318 matched
0 unmatched
 21 / 64 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bryan Reynolds | 42.1
 --
Signals --
2026-06-08
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 180 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 17 / 44
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Adley Rutschman | 34.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%