Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	554	64	130	19	1	.262	.315	.446	.761
2025	682	72	164	32	1	.264	.323	.475	.798
2026	474	52	102	15	5	.246	.329	.412	.741
5 Seasons	2268	237	529	85	8	.262	.330	.447	.777

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

66

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

67

Defense2 metrics

50

Speed2 metrics

15

Plate skills10 metrics

53

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.336
xwOBA current pace	0.334
xwOBA rolling p50	0.335
Observed weight	69%

xwOBA

0.314 0.324 0.335 0.346 0.356

wOBA

0.312 0.325 0.339 0.354 0.367

ISO

0.148 0.159 0.172 0.184 0.196

K%

13.1% 14.0% 15.1% 16.1% 17.0%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.6%

76

Exit velocity89.9

77

Hard-hit%42.0%

68

xBA0.308

38

xSLG0.522

57

xwOBA0.334

81

BB%10.5%

74 +30 vs proj

Bat speed69.0

41

K%15.0%

88

Defense · percentile strip

Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B

47

Range Runs-0.0 · 1B

53

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-2.1 · 1B

16

Sprint Speed25.8 · 1B

13

SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.5% · rebadged research

56

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3% · rebadged research

80

Correct Decisions67.5% · rebadged research

65

Resists FastballwOBA 0.342 · validated

41

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105

69

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline

76

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · insufficient sample

23

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.299 · validated thin sample

17

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.357 · insufficient sample

7

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.326 · validated

95

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Vinnie Pasquantino's tools (80) outpace production (77) by 3 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects. Also flagged: Chase Rate Problem.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

269 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.2σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.339

xwOBA (deserved)0.334

Pasquantino’s wOBA sits at 0.339, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.334 — a gap of 0.005, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 486 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Bregman, Alex CHC · R	0.76	Walk rateStrikeout rate	Player · Projection
Tucker, Kyle LAD · L	0.74	Sweet-spot rateBat speed	Player · Projection
Bellinger, Cody NYY · L	0.72	Isolated powerChase rate	Player · Projection
Ramírez, José CLE · L	0.71	Bat speedWhiff rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	6	2026-09-22	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	18	2026-09-24	2 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.405

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.333 xwOBA | 23 HR

Projection

xwOBA Δ	+0.001
wOBA Δ	+0.006

Vinnie Pasquantino

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail