Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK

Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-06-12 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-06-12
0 activated plays
Gap rows 249
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-06-13 Older: 2026-06-11

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-11 2026-06-10

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Cj Abrams

Strong

WSH vs SEA | Bryce Miller

Value Score 48.3
Odds / Gap +590 / +9.05%
1+ HR 23.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.131x

Value Rank #2

Adley Rutschman

Strong

BAL vs SD | Griffin Canning

Value Score 44.2
Odds / Gap +710 / +9.09%
1+ HR 21.4%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.080x

Value Rank #3

Gunnar Henderson

Play

BAL vs SD | Griffin Canning

Value Score 41.4
Odds / Gap +455 / +5.41%
1+ HR 23.4%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.080x

Value Rank #4

Daylen Lile

Strong

WSH vs SEA | Bryce Miller

Value Score 40.7
Odds / Gap +770 / +8.81%
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.131x

Value Rank #5

Josh Naylor

Play

SEA vs WSH | Zack Littell

Value Score 40.2
Odds / Gap +495 / +6.19%
1+ HR 23.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.131x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs SD | Griffin Canning | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +9.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+9.09%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+9.09%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+9.02%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +9.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+9.05%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+8.94%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+8.94%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +8.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+8.81%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+8.74%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+8.74%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +8.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+8.69%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+8.53%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+8.53%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +8.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+8.20%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+8.20%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+8.11%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+8.03%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+8.03%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+8.03%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+7.96%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+7.85%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+7.80%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.4
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 7
Strong
Best Gap +7.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+7.61%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+7.46%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+7.46%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+6.67%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+6.57%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+6.57%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.44%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+6.44%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+6.31%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+6.31%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.19%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+6.19%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+6.05%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+6.05%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +990 / U -1665
+6.02%
8.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +975 / U --
+5.89%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +965 / U -1760
+5.80%
9.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 106.3
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs ATL | Spencer Strider | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+5.83%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+5.75%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.75%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+5.65%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+5.53%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+5.53%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+5.65%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+5.52%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+5.52%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+5.60%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+5.48%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+5.48%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+5.53%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -815
+5.43%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+5.43%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+5.52%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+5.40%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+5.40%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.45%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1010
+5.45%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1070
+5.45%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+5.37%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+5.43%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+5.43%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+5.43%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs SD | Griffin Canning | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+5.41%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+5.08%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+5.08%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.32%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+5.32%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+5.20%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+5.20%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.32%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+5.32%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
+5.19%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+5.19%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1055
+5.21%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1120
+5.13%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.13%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.4
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+5.20%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+5.04%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+4.88%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+5.12%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+5.02%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+5.02%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+5.10%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -770
+4.99%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+4.99%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs ATL | Spencer Strider | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+4.93%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+4.84%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+4.84%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+4.87%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+4.57%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+4.57%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+4.72%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+4.72%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+4.62%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+4.68%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+4.61%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+4.61%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+4.67%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+4.67%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+4.67%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+4.67%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+4.56%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+4.56%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.52%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+4.43%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.43%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+4.46%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+4.40%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+4.33%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.1
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+4.28%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+4.15%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+4.01%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+4.09%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+4.09%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+4.09%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+3.96%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+3.80%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+3.75%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.3
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+3.93%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+3.84%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+3.84%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+3.85%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+3.70%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+3.54%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.69%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+3.69%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+2.35%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-6.91%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+3.66%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+3.66%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+3.66%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+3.38%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+3.22%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+3.17%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.5
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+3.37%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+3.22%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+3.22%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+3.37%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+3.37%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+3.37%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.30%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+3.18%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+3.18%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+3.18%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+3.01%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
+2.84%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs SD | Griffin Canning | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+3.13%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+2.97%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.97%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
+2.77%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
+2.65%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+2.65%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -685
+2.60%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
+2.32%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.32%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+2.59%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+2.49%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+2.49%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.58%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+2.58%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+2.45%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+2.45%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+2.44%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+2.44%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+2.44%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs ATL | Spencer Strider | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+2.24%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+1.96%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+1.96%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +2.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.15%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.15%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.15%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs ATL | Spencer Strider | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+2.12%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+1.93%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+1.74%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+2.02%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+1.84%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
+1.66%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+1.80%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+1.67%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+1.67%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+1.77%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+1.65%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+1.65%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+1.52%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+1.33%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+1.14%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.43%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.43%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.43%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.1
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.16%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.85%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.85%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
+1.12%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
+0.95%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
+0.78%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.02%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.02%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.02%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.7
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.83%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+0.83%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+0.51%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+0.51%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs SD | Griffin Canning | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.79%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.48%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.48%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+0.71%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.57%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+0.43%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+0.63%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+0.42%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+0.21%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
+0.22%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
+0.01%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.21%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+0.10%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-0.05%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
-0.21%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs ATL | Spencer Strider | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
+0.00%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
-1.25%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-3.05%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
-0.03%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
-1.31%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-3.03%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -485
-0.03%
20.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +365 / U -450
-0.49%
20.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-0.49%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.58%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.47%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-2.77%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs SD | Griffin Canning | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-0.86%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-1.38%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +330 / U -410
-1.65%
22.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-0.95%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-1.12%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-1.30%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-0.96%
19.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.92%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-2.36%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.14%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.14%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.14%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.3
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.15%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-2.03%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.21%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.32%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-1.57%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-1.67%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-1.38%
22.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.61%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-1.86%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-1.55%
19.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-1.64%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-1.84%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.58%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.58%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.58%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.6

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 394
Latest Date 2026-06-17
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-11
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 180 matched
0 unmatched
 30 / 38 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 51.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-10
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
0 unmatched
 21 / 37 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 47.9
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%