Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 23 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 195 lb |
| Debut | 2024-03-20 |
Player profile / San Diego Padres
Jackson Merrill
CF · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 2", 195 lb · Age 23
Club San Diego Padres
Position CF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 593 | 77 | 162 | 24 | 16 | .292 | .326 | .500 | .826 |
| 2025 | 483 | 59 | 116 | 16 | 1 | .264 | .317 | .457 | .774 |
| 2026 | 392 | 43 | 79 | 10 | 19 | .219 | .278 | .350 | .628 |
| 3 Seasons | 1468 | 179 | 357 | 50 | 36 | .264 | .310 | .446 | .756 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
61
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.369 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.306 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.328 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.304
0.315
0.328
0.340
0.352
wOBA
0.269
0.283
0.298
0.314
0.327
ISO
0.128
0.140
0.153
0.166
0.178
K%
20.7%
21.9%
23.1%
24.4%
25.5%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
63
-26 vs proj
Exit velocity88.4
53
Hard-hit%45.5%
78
xBA0.332
60
xSLG0.561
67
xwOBA0.306
47
-46 vs proj
BB%7.1%
31
Bat speed71.5
75
K%24.6%
38
-31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs4.3 · CF
100
Arm Strength95.6 · CF
71
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs0.6 · CF
51
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.0 · CF
97
Bolts10.0 · CF
69
SB Success Rate92.9% · CF
84
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
90
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.4% · rebadged research
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.5% · rebadged research
90
Correct Decisions67.1% · rebadged research
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · borderline
96
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
46
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290 · validated thin sample
25
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
100
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327 · validated
72
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389 · validated
7
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
184 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.066 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.073 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Merrill’s wOBA sits at 0.298, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.306 — a gap of 0.007, 0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 410 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Realmuto, J.T. PHI · R | 0.83 | Bat speedIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
| Peña, Jeremy HOU · R | 0.75 | Walk rateSprint speed | Player · Projection |
| Duran, Ezequiel TEX · R | 0.72 | Sprint speedWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| Lile, Daylen WSH · L | 0.71 | Pull rateMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 4 | 2026-07-11 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.371 xwOBA | 19 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 vs LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | K |
| 2026-04-17 @ LAA0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-15 vs SEA0 HR | 2 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | 2B, K, 2 RBI |
| 2026-04-14 vs SEA0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 3-4 | 2B, 2 R, SB |
| 2026-04-12 vs COL1 HR | 1 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 2-3 | HR, RBI, 2 R |