Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	593	77	162	24	16	.292	.326	.500	.826
2025	483	59	116	16	1	.264	.317	.457	.774
2026	659	84	154	26	26	.253	.301	.440	.741
3 Seasons	1735	220	432	66	43	.269	.314	.465	.779

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

90

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

77

Defense4 metrics

94

Speed4 metrics

81

Plate skills10 metrics

50

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.369
xwOBA current pace	0.347
xwOBA rolling p50	0.353
Observed weight	76%

xwOBA

0.332 0.342 0.353 0.363 0.373

wOBA

0.314 0.325 0.337 0.349 0.360

ISO

0.168 0.178 0.189 0.199 0.209

K%

21.0% 21.9% 22.9% 23.9% 24.8%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%8.4%

91

Exit velocity90.8

86

Hard-hit%48.9%

92 +15 vs proj

xBA0.364

91

xSLG0.665

92

xwOBA0.347

91

BB%6.0%

24

Bat speed71.5

76

K%23.7%

46 -26 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs6.6 · CF

99

Arm Strength100.2 · CF

93

Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF

96

Range Runs5.5 · CF

88

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs5.0 · CF

96

Bolts21.0 · CF

75

SB Success Rate85.0% · CF

63

Sprint Speed29.0 · CF

90

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.6% · rebadged research

22

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.1% · rebadged research

89

Correct Decisions67.0% · rebadged research

60

Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated

44

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100

46

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · borderline

98

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample

15

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample

23

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.305 · insufficient sample

89

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated

17

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jackson Merrill's production (73) outpaces the tools grade (70) by 4 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+9.7° Current 6° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

296 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.337

xwOBA (deserved)0.347

Merrill’s wOBA sits at 0.337, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.347 — a gap of 0.010, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 678 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Riley, Austin ATL · R	0.70	Oppo rateFly-ball rate	Player · Projection
Schmitt, Casey SF · R	0.70	Swing lengthMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Langeliers, Shea ATH · R	0.68	In-zone contactOppo rate	Player · Projection
Abrams, CJ WSH · L	0.68	Strikeout rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	13	2026-09-12	Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding	29	2026-09-25	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +2.836

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.371 xwOBA \| 19 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 K
2026-05-20 vs LAD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| K
2026-04-17 @ LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-15 vs SEA0 HR \| 2 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| 2B, K, 2 RBI
2026-04-14 vs SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	3-4 \| 2B, 2 R, SB

Age	23
Height	6' 2"
Weight	195 lb
Debut	2024-03-20

xwOBA Δ	-0.024
wOBA Δ	-0.034

Hitter Projections 20260.371 xwOBA \| 19 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 K
2026-05-20 vs LAD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| K
2026-04-17 @ LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-15 vs SEA0 HR \| 2 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| 2B, K, 2 RBI
2026-04-14 vs SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	3-4 \| 2B, 2 R, SB

Jackson Merrill

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail