Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	567	73	123	21	2	.248	.335	.440	.775
2025	592	78	137	34	4	.261	.343	.523	.866
2026	707	78	145	20	3	.243	.354	.395	.749
4 Seasons	1947	238	417	77	10	.247	.341	.443	.784

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

63

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

59

Defense2 metrics

86

Speed2 metrics

12

Plate skills10 metrics

50

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.346
xwOBA current pace	0.332
xwOBA rolling p50	0.335
Observed weight	77%

xwOBA

0.316 0.325 0.335 0.345 0.354

wOBA

0.327 0.337 0.349 0.361 0.372

ISO

0.149 0.158 0.169 0.179 0.188

K%

21.7% 22.6% 23.7% 24.7% 25.6%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%5.8%

65 -26 vs proj

Exit velocity88.4

55

Hard-hit%40.1%

58 -21 vs proj

xBA0.321

54

xSLG0.555

68

xwOBA0.332

79

BB%12.8%

91 +15 vs proj

Bat speed66.2

13

K%23.1%

50

Defense · percentile strip

Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B

88

Range Runs3.7 · 1B

84

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-3.1 · 1B

7

Sprint Speed26.0 · 1B

16

SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.3% · rebadged research

81

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4% · rebadged research

38

Correct Decisions67.7% · rebadged research

67

Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated

71

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105

72

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline

32

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample

34

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample

92

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · insufficient sample

5

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384 · validated

9

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Michael Busch's production (80) outpaces the tools grade (68) by 11 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

293 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.7σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.349

xwOBA (deserved)0.332

Busch’s wOBA sits at 0.349, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.332 — a gap of 0.018, -0.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 726 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Tucker, Kyle LAD · L	0.77	Fly-ball rateSweet-spot rate	Player · Projection
Aranda, Jonathan TB · L	0.68	Isolated powerStrikeout rate	Player · Projection
Wells, Austin NYY · L	0.67	Fly-ball rateAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection
Langford, Wyatt TEX · R	0.66	In-zone contactPull rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	9	2026-09-19	Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding	25	2026-09-25	3 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.678

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.353 xwOBA \| 27 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs STL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2 K
2026-05-20 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB, K
2026-04-20 vs PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, R
2026-04-17 vs NYM0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| BB, K, 2 R
2026-04-15 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| K

Age	28
Height	5' 11"
Weight	210 lb
Debut	2023-04-25

xwOBA Δ	-0.021
wOBA Δ	-0.004

Hitter Projections 20260.353 xwOBA \| 27 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs STL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2 K
2026-05-20 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB, K
2026-04-20 vs PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, R
2026-04-17 vs NYM0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| BB, K, 2 R
2026-04-15 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| K

Michael Busch

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail