Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	583	93	147	36	7	.292	.372	.560	.932
2025	556	87	136	28	4	.283	.376	.517	.893
2026	624	78	140	22	4	.249	.316	.432	.748
12 Seasons	5716	766	1413	193	69	.277	.347	.468	.815

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

74

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

75

Defense4 metrics

80

Speed3 metrics

34

Plate skills10 metrics

43

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27

xwOBA preseason	0.364
xwOBA current pace	0.345
xwOBA rolling p50	0.350
Observed weight	74%

xwOBA

0.328 0.339 0.350 0.361 0.371

wOBA

0.314 0.325 0.338 0.351 0.362

ISO

0.171 0.181 0.193 0.205 0.215

K%

13.1% 13.9% 14.7% 15.6% 16.4%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%7.1%

82

Exit velocity89.9

77

Hard-hit%42.5%

70

xBA0.327

61

xSLG0.539

62

xwOBA0.345

90

BB%8.2%

48 -22 vs proj

Bat speed73.4

91

K%13.6%

94

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.2 · 2B

68

Arm Strength91.5 · 2B

80

Outs Above Avg4.0 · 2B

88

Range Runs2.9 · 2B

82

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs0.7 · 2B

57

Bolts1.0 · 2B

11

Sprint Speed26.8 · 2B

33

SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-27

Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.1% · rebadged research

37

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research

43

Correct Decisions65.5% · rebadged research

43

Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated

55

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98

36

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline

33

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample

16

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample

68

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample

94

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.416 · validated

1

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Ketel Marte's production (79) outpaces the tools grade (70) by 9 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-21.5° Current 42° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.3σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.338

xwOBA (deserved)0.345

Marte’s wOBA sits at 0.338, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.345 — a gap of 0.007, 0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 631 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Bell, Josh MIN · L	0.66	Ground-ball rateWalk rate	Player · Projection
Young, Jared NYM · L	0.63	Oppo rateAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection
Soderstrom, Tyler ATH · L	0.61	Fly-ball ratexwOBA on contact	Player · Projection
García Jr., Luis WSH · L	0.61	Whiff rateOppo rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	4	2026-09-24	Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding	16	2026-09-26	2 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +0.011

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.360 xwOBA \| 26 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs SF1 HR \| 2 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	3-3 \| HR, 2B, BB
2026-04-17 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| 2 R
2026-04-15 @ BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| 3 K, R
2026-04-13 @ BAL2 HR \| 2 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| 2 HR, K, 2 RBI
2026-04-12 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| BB

Age	32
Height	6' 0"
Weight	210 lb
Debut	2015-07-31

xwOBA Δ	-0.015
wOBA Δ	-0.022

Hitter Projections 20260.360 xwOBA \| 26 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs SF1 HR \| 2 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	3-3 \| HR, 2B, BB
2026-04-17 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| 2 R
2026-04-15 @ BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| 3 K, R
2026-04-13 @ BAL2 HR \| 2 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| 2 HR, K, 2 RBI
2026-04-12 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| BB

Ketel Marte

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail