Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 27 |
| Height | 6' 0" |
| Weight | 245 lb |
| Debut | 2019-04-26 |
Player profile / Toronto Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero
1B · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 245 lb · Age 27
Club Toronto Blue Jays
Position 1B
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 697 | 98 | 199 | 30 | 2 | .323 | .396 | .544 | .940 |
| 2025 | 680 | 96 | 172 | 23 | 6 | .292 | .381 | .467 | .848 |
| 2026 | 387 | 51 | 88 | 6 | 7 | .262 | .346 | .357 | .703 |
| 8 Seasons | 4607 | 622 | 1165 | 189 | 33 | .286 | .364 | .484 | .848 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
66
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.397 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.343 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.362 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.337
0.349
0.362
0.375
0.387
wOBA
0.314
0.329
0.345
0.361
0.375
ISO
0.116
0.128
0.141
0.155
0.167
K%
11.3%
12.2%
13.3%
14.4%
15.4%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
57
-36 vs proj
Exit velocity90.3
79
Hard-hit%45.5%
78
xBA0.337
66
xSLG0.477
38
xwOBA0.343
81
-18 vs proj
BB%10.8%
74
Bat speed74.7
97
K%12.8%
95
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg5.0 · 1B
91
Range Runs3.6 · 1B
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · 1B
36
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
93
Sprint Speed26.1 · 1B
20
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.7% · rebadged research
50
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5% · rebadged research
81
Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
76
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
37
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.310 · validated thin sample
5
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.309 · insufficient sample
95
Resists FastballwOBA 0.370 · validated
9
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374 · validated
17
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
216 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.051 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.049 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Guerrero’s wOBA sits at 0.345, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.343 — a gap of 0.002, -0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 398 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Herrera, Iván STL · R | 0.73 | Oppo rateWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
| Contreras, William MIL · R | 0.66 | Pull rateAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Chapman, Matt SF · R | 0.57 | In-zone contactWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| Díaz, Yandy TB · R | 0.56 | Sprint speedGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 16 | 2026-03-22 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.393 xwOBA | 27 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ NYY0 HR | 1 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | RBI |
| 2026-04-20 @ LAA1 HR | 2 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 3-4 | HR, K, 2 RBI |
| 2026-04-17 @ AZ0 HR | 1 RBI / 9 Ch | 1 E | 1-4 | RBI |
| 2026-04-15 @ MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 11 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | BB, K |
| 2026-04-14 @ MIL0 HR | 2 RBI / 10 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | 2B, 2 RBI, R |