Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	713	128	166	41	7	.288	.419	.569	.988
2025	715	120	152	43	38	.263	.396	.525	.921
2026	338	44	81	21	7	.292	.412	.563	.975
9 Seasons	5141	819	1167	265	102	.282	.417	.533	.950

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16

93

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

89

Defense4 metrics

21

Speed3 metrics

14

Plate skills10 metrics

49

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16

xwOBA preseason	0.424
xwOBA current pace	0.431
xwOBA rolling p50	0.429
Observed weight	61%

xwOBA

0.400 0.414 0.429 0.443 0.457

wOBA

0.394 0.410 0.428 0.446 0.462

ISO

0.221 0.237 0.255 0.274 0.290

K%

13.5% 14.6% 15.8% 17.0% 18.1%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%10.5%

98

Exit velocity92.0

92

Hard-hit%49.0%

88

xBA0.364

86

xSLG0.728

96

xwOBA0.431

100

BB%16.3%

98

Bat speed69.5

47

K%13.1%

93 +21 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-1.5 · LF

11

Arm Strength87.7 · LF

12

Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF

22

Range Runs-0.9 · LF

39

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-1.1 · LF

14

SB Success Rate60.0% · LF

11

Sprint Speed25.9 · LF

16

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-16

Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.8% · rebadged research

92

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4% · rebadged research

66

Correct Decisions70.5% · rebadged research

88

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111

91

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · borderline

5

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · insufficient sample

15

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample

73

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · insufficient sample

24

Resists FastballwOBA 0.372 · validated

9

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated

24

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Juan Soto's tools (94) outpace production (90) by 3 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives. Also flagged: Passive In-Zone Approach.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-9.0° Current 29° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

153 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.1σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.428

xwOBA (deserved)0.431

Soto’s wOBA sits at 0.428, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.431 — a gap of 0.003, 0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 343 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Grisham, Trent NYY · L	0.58	Pull rateGround-ball rate	Player · Projection
Vargas, Miguel CWS · R	0.56	Pull rateBarrel rate	Player · Projection
Eldridge, Bryce SF · L	0.53	Pull ratexwOBA on contact	Player · Projection
Muncy, Max LAD · L	0.53	Bat speedGround-ball rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	7	2026-07-09	Impact contact was the main driver

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.443 xwOBA \| 34 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ WSH2 HR \| 3 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R
2026-04-03 @ SF0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-1
2026-04-02 @ SF0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, R
2026-04-01 @ STL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| HR, K, RBI
2026-03-31 @ STL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2B, K

Age	27
Height	6' 1"
Weight	224 lb
Debut	2018-05-15

xwOBA Δ	-0.012
wOBA Δ	-0.015

Hitter Projections 20260.443 xwOBA \| 34 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ WSH2 HR \| 3 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R
2026-04-03 @ SF0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-1
2026-04-02 @ SF0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, R
2026-04-01 @ STL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| HR, K, RBI
2026-03-31 @ STL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2B, K

Juan Soto

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail