Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 27 |
| Height | 6' 1" |
| Weight | 224 lb |
| Debut | 2018-05-15 |
Player profile / New York Mets
Juan Soto
LF · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 1", 224 lb · Age 27
Club New York Mets
Position LF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 713 | 128 | 166 | 41 | 7 | .288 | .419 | .569 | .988 |
| 2025 | 715 | 120 | 152 | 43 | 38 | .263 | .396 | .525 | .921 |
| 2026 | 482 | 63 | 110 | 27 | 9 | .275 | .393 | .515 | .908 |
| 9 Seasons | 5285 | 838 | 1196 | 271 | 104 | .281 | .415 | .530 | .945 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
93
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.424 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.411 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.415 |
| Observed weight | 69% |
xwOBA
0.390
0.402
0.415
0.428
0.440
wOBA
0.380
0.394
0.409
0.424
0.437
ISO
0.210
0.224
0.239
0.255
0.268
K%
13.7%
14.7%
15.7%
16.8%
17.7%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.7%
97
Exit velocity92.1
94
Hard-hit%48.2%
89
xBA0.353
85
xSLG0.685
94
xwOBA0.411
100
BB%16.3%
99
Bat speed70.1
58
K%13.8%
93
+16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.4 · LF
9
Arm Strength88.5 · LF
14
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
9
Range Runs-2.7 · LF
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · LF
25
SB Success Rate71.4% · LF
30
Sprint Speed25.6 · LF
11
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.9% · rebadged research
90
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research
46
Correct Decisions69.6% · rebadged research
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.324 · borderline
8
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.304 · insufficient sample
8
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.300 · validated thin sample
15
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
65
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359 · validated
18
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.390 · validated
5
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
223 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.032 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.034 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Soto’s wOBA sits at 0.409, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.411 — a gap of 0.002, 0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 486 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grisham, Trent NYY · L | 0.54 | Pull rateOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Muncy, Max LAD · L | 0.50 | Isolated powerFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Rice, Ben NYY · L | 0.50 | Hard-hit rateFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Soderstrom, Tyler ATH · L | 0.49 | Isolated powerMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 9 | 2026-09-18 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 5 | 2026-09-22 | 4 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.010 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.443 xwOBA | 34 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ WSH2 HR | 3 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R |
| 2026-04-03 @ SF0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-02 @ SF0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K, R |
| 2026-04-01 @ STL1 HR | 1 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-5 | HR, K, RBI |
| 2026-03-31 @ STL0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | 2B, K |