Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 34 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 218 lb |
| Debut | 2012-08-09 |
Player profile / San Diego Padres
Manny Machado
3B · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 218 lb · Age 34
Club San Diego Padres
Position 3B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 643 | 77 | 163 | 29 | 11 | .275 | .325 | .472 | .797 |
| 2025 | 678 | 91 | 169 | 27 | 14 | .275 | .335 | .460 | .795 |
| 2026 | 677 | 82 | 128 | 30 | 5 | .217 | .303 | .407 | .710 |
| 15 Seasons | 8872 | 1164 | 2197 | 399 | 118 | .274 | .335 | .480 | .815 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
71
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.331 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.327 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.328 |
| Observed weight | 76% |
xwOBA
0.309
0.318
0.328
0.338
0.348
wOBA
0.300
0.311
0.323
0.335
0.346
ISO
0.165
0.174
0.185
0.196
0.206
K%
19.2%
20.1%
21.1%
22.1%
23.0%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
74
Exit velocity89.9
77
Hard-hit%43.7%
77
xBA0.320
53
xSLG0.555
67
xwOBA0.327
76
BB%11.2%
83
+41 vs proj
Bat speed72.7
88
K%21.1%
60
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength87.3 · 3B
53
Outs Above Avg10.0 · 3B
96
Range Runs7.8 · 3B
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-5.2 · 3B
1
Sprint Speed25.2 · 3B
7
SB Success Rate33.3% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.2% · rebadged research
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.5% · rebadged research
78
Correct Decisions70.0% · rebadged research
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.374 · validated
9
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline
82
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
48
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
75
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
68
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
74
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
293 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.017 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Machado’s wOBA sits at 0.323, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.327 — a gap of 0.005, 0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 686 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walker, Christian HOU · R | 0.81 | In-zone contactBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Bell, Josh MIN · L | 0.75 | Barrel rateChase rate | Player · Projection |
| Sheets, Gavin SD · L | 0.70 | Walk rateIsolated power | Player · Projection |
| Contreras, William MIL · R | 0.70 | Sweet-spot rateGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 8 | 2026-09-07 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 22 | 2026-09-26 | 2 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +0.231 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.340 xwOBA | 26 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ CLE0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |
| 2026-05-20 vs LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |
| 2026-04-17 @ LAA0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-15 vs SEA0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, K, R |
| 2026-04-14 vs SEA0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 |