Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 32 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 190 lb |
| Debut | 2016-07-25 |
Player profile / Chicago Cubs
Alex Bregman
3B · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 10", 190 lb · Age 32
Club Chicago Cubs
Position 3B
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 634 | 79 | 151 | 26 | 3 | .260 | .315 | .453 | .768 |
| 2025 | 495 | 64 | 118 | 18 | 1 | .273 | .360 | .462 | .822 |
| 2026 | 431 | 45 | 89 | 9 | 2 | .241 | .336 | .359 | .695 |
| 11 Seasons | 5758 | 803 | 1339 | 218 | 45 | .270 | .363 | .472 | .835 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
37
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.323 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.310 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.314 |
| Observed weight | 67% |
xwOBA
0.292
0.303
0.314
0.326
0.337
wOBA
0.318
0.332
0.347
0.362
0.376
ISO
0.129
0.141
0.155
0.168
0.180
K%
13.0%
13.9%
14.9%
15.9%
16.8%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
28
Exit velocity88.3
50
Hard-hit%38.0%
46
xBA0.290
21
xSLG0.434
24
xwOBA0.310
53
-16 vs proj
BB%11.1%
77
+22 vs proj
Bat speed68.2
30
K%15.4%
85
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.0 · 3B
14
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 3B
89
Range Runs3.3 · 3B
82
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · 3B
37
Sprint Speed26.0 · 3B
18
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.1% · rebadged research
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0% · rebadged research
24
Correct Decisions68.9% · rebadged research
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · borderline
88
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.256 · insufficient sample
97
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294 · validated thin sample
18
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.375 · insufficient sample
3
Resists FastballwOBA 0.350 · validated
29
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated
74
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
222 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.017 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.020 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Bregman’s wOBA sits at 0.347, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.310 — a gap of 0.037, -1.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 442 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasquantino, Vinnie KC · L | 0.80 | Pull rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
| Yoshida, Masataka BOS · L | 0.76 | Hard-hit ratePull rate | Player · Projection |
| Tucker, Kyle LAD · L | 0.74 | Ground-ball rateSprint speed | Player · Projection |
| Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R | 0.73 | In-zone contactIsolated power | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-03-29 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.327 xwOBA | 20 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 vs MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K |
| 2026-04-20 vs PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | 2 2B, K |
| 2026-04-17 vs NYM0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 1-5 | K, R |
| 2026-04-15 @ PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | BB, 3 K, R |
| 2026-04-14 @ PHI0 HR | 3 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 3-5 | K, 3 RBI |