Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 33 |
| Height | 6' 1" |
| Weight | 220 lb |
| Debut | 2017-06-15 |
Player profile / San Francisco Giants
Matt Chapman
3B · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 220 lb · Age 33
Club San Francisco Giants
Position 3B
Roster Injured 10-Day
Status IL-10
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 647 | 98 | 142 | 27 | 15 | .247 | .328 | .463 | .791 |
| 2025 | 535 | 76 | 105 | 21 | 9 | .231 | .340 | .430 | .770 |
| 2026 | 352 | 35 | 72 | 7 | 0 | .235 | .324 | .368 | .692 |
| 10 Seasons | 5122 | 696 | 1073 | 210 | 35 | .240 | .330 | .452 | .782 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
34
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.326 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.286 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.301 |
| Observed weight | 62% |
xwOBA
0.276
0.288
0.301
0.315
0.327
wOBA
0.314
0.329
0.346
0.363
0.378
ISO
0.131
0.145
0.160
0.176
0.190
K%
21.0%
22.2%
23.6%
24.9%
26.2%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
45
-36 vs proj
Exit velocity88.3
51
Hard-hit%36.7%
39
-46 vs proj
xBA0.286
18
xSLG0.435
24
xwOBA0.286
28
-46 vs proj
BB%10.4%
72
Bat speed74.2
95
K%22.3%
50
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.2 · 3B
71
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 3B
89
Range Runs2.9 · 3B
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · 3B
25
Sprint Speed28.1 · 3B
70
SB Success Rate0.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.4% · rebadged research
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4% · rebadged research
47
Correct Decisions70.1% · rebadged research
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · borderline
36
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · insufficient sample
10
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303 · validated thin sample
9
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.304 · insufficient sample
97
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
81
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344 · validated
85
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
188 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.047 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.013 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Chapman’s wOBA sits at 0.346, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.286 — a gap of 0.060, -2.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 364 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Herrera, Iván STL · R | 0.72 | Isolated powerChase rate | Player · Projection |
| Realmuto, J.T. PHI · R | 0.66 | Pull rateSprint speed | Player · Projection |
| Mayer, Marcelo BOS · L | 0.66 | Hard-hit rateBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Bazzana, Travis CLE · L | 0.64 | Chase rateSweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2026-03-25 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.333 xwOBA | 20 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ AZ0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | 2 R |
| 2026-04-17 @ WSH0 HR | 3 RBI / 6 Ch | 1 E | 3-5 | K, 3 RBI, R |
| 2026-04-15 @ CIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | R |
| 2026-04-14 @ CIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 |
| 2026-04-12 @ BAL0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |