Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-06-11 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-06-11
0 activated plays
Gap rows 180
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-06-12 Older: 2026-06-10

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12 2026-06-10 2026-06-09 2026-06-08

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Bo Bichette

Strong

NYM vs STL | Hunter Dobbins

Value Score 51.8
Odds / Gap +725 / +10.25%
1+ HR 22.4%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.227x

Value Rank #2

Francisco Lindor

Play

NYM vs STL | Hunter Dobbins

Value Score 45.2
Odds / Gap +420 / +4.93%
1+ HR 24.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.227x

Value Rank #3

Colt Keith

Strong

DET vs MIN | Zebby Matthews

Value Score 43.2
Odds / Gap +820 / +9.34%
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.154x

Value Rank #4

Marcus Semien

Strong

NYM vs STL | Hunter Dobbins

Value Score 39.8
Odds / Gap +630 / +8.07%
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.227x

Value Rank #5

Austin Hays

Strong

CWS vs ATL | Martín Pérez

Value Score 38.5
Odds / Gap +725 / +8.31%
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.137x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs STL | Hunter Dobbins | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +10.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+10.25%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+10.17%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+10.17%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +9.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+9.34%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+9.22%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+9.22%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Hays headshot

Austin Hays
CWS vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+8.31%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +725 / U -1125
+8.31%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+8.23%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs STL | Hunter Dobbins | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.07%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+8.07%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+7.98%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+7.98%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+7.89%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+7.89%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+7.82%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1400
+7.57%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1480
+7.41%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+7.41%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.9
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+7.43%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+7.27%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+7.22%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.2
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+7.33%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+7.25%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+7.25%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.4
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.19%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1195
+7.19%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+7.13%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+7.13%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -950
+7.13%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+7.13%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+7.05%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.7
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+6.79%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+6.67%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+6.67%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+6.33%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+6.33%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+6.25%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1015
+6.18%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1075
+6.18%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+6.10%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.04%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+6.04%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+5.88%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+5.88%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+5.92%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+5.80%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+5.80%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.84%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 21.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+5.84%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+4.13%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-8.66%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs STL | Hunter Dobbins | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+5.09%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+4.81%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+4.81%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+4.94%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+4.83%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+4.83%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs STL | Hunter Dobbins | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+4.93%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+4.74%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+4.55%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+4.92%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+4.77%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+4.72%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+4.73%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+4.73%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+4.73%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+4.65%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+4.51%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+4.37%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+4.61%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+4.47%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+4.33%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+4.59%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+4.59%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+4.59%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.6
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.58%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
+4.58%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
+4.41%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
+4.24%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+4.18%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+4.18%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+4.18%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 106.6
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+4.17%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+4.05%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+4.05%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+4.13%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+4.06%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+4.06%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.7
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+4.10%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+3.77%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+3.77%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+4.05%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+3.94%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+3.94%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+3.70%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+3.70%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+3.70%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+3.67%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+3.54%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+3.40%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.44%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+3.44%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+3.32%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+3.32%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.2
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.36%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+3.36%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+2.08%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-6.42%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+3.31%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+3.20%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+3.20%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+3.25%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+3.15%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+3.15%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+3.14%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+3.01%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+2.88%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+3.01%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+2.85%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.85%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+2.93%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+2.62%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.62%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+2.46%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+2.32%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.32%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+2.34%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
+2.21%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+2.21%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+2.05%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+1.95%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+1.95%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+1.96%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+1.80%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.80%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.76%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -530
+1.76%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
+1.56%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -495
+1.35%
19.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+1.52%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+1.35%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
+1.17%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+1.50%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.34%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+1.18%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+1.44%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+1.26%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+1.08%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.22%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.22%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.22%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 104.4
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+1.07%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+0.91%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+0.75%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs STL | Hunter Dobbins | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 24.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +320 / U -405
+0.77%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
+0.48%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +310 / U -375
+0.19%
23.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -535
+0.69%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
+0.49%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +395 / U -500
+0.29%
19.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.54%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+0.54%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.37%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+0.20%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.23%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.73%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.27%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 102.5
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-0.26%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-0.58%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.58%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.26%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.57%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.57%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-0.61%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.04%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.27%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.63%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.57%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.73%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-0.65%
22.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.70%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-2.59%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
-1.11%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-1.75%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-2.27%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.45%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-1.73%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-1.91%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 392
Latest Date 2026-06-15
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-11
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 180 matched
0 unmatched
 30 / 38 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 51.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-10
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
0 unmatched
 21 / 37 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 47.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-09
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 318 matched
0 unmatched
 21 / 64 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bryan Reynolds | 42.1
 --
Signals --
2026-06-08
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 180 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 17 / 44
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Adley Rutschman | 34.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%