{
  "date": "2026-06-12",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-12T08:03:03.539304",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 153,
    "odds_matched_count": 83,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 25,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-12",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 823778,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 415,
      "over_odds": 415,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2094,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.235,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2096,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-12",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 823211,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2084,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2337,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2086,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-12",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 608070,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824425,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2083,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2336,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2085,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-12",
      "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_id": 621493,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 824826,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2099,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2356,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.21,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-12",
      "player_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_id": 665742,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 823617,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 320,
      "over_odds": 320,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2105,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2364,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2108,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.47,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-12",
      "player_name": "Riley Greene",
      "hitter_name": "Riley Greene",
      "hitter_id": 682985,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824425,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 445,
      "over_odds": 445,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1947,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2166,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1948,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-12",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824826,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2046,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2289,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2047,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-12",
      "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_id": 681481,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824425,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 400,
      "over_odds": 400,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1836,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2029,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1837,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.08,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-12",
      "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_id": 607043,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 824752,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 515,
      "over_odds": 515,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2054,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2299,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2055,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-12",
      "player_name": "Jorge Polanco",
      "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco",
      "hitter_id": 593871,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 823617,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1905,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2114,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1907,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.55,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 415,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2094,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2084,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2083,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2099,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Juan Soto",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 320,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2105,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
        "high_upside_score": 49.47
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Riley Greene",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 445,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1947,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.41
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2046,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 400,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1836,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.08
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 515,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2054,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jorge Polanco",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1905,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.55
      }
    ]
  }
}