Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 34 |
| Height | 6' 3" |
| Weight | 203 lb |
| Debut | 2013-09-01 |
Player profile / San Diego Padres
Nick Castellanos
RF profile with live context, projection links, and Mithrandir card history when available.
Club San Diego Padres
Position RF
Roster profile
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
50
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
49
Exit velocity88.2
48
Hard-hit%36.6%
35
xBA0.346
74
xSLG0.568
67
xwOBA0.285
27
BB%3.6%
7
Bat speed68.0
27
K%27.0%
24
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.1 · RF
1
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
20
Arm Runs-0.5 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs-3.1 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · RF
45
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.0% · rebadged research
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0% · rebadged research
83
Correct Decisions62.1% · rebadged research
15
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
44
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · insufficient sample
92
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
80
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
66
Resists FastballwOBA 0.312 · validated
92
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
47
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
18
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
94 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Castellanos’s wOBA sits at 0.278, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.285 — a gap of 0.007, 0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 137 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2026-05-22 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| No projection links or recent game log rows are available yet. |