Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	656	72	139	17	5	.241	.324	.390	.714
2025	515	61	103	11	3	.246	.367	.377	.744
2026	416	45	83	7	9	.224	.303	.318	.621
7 Seasons	3628	440	770	87	33	.244	.332	.395	.727

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

17

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

27

Defense4 metrics

32

Speed3 metrics

29

Plate skills10 metrics

54

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.320
xwOBA current pace	0.270
xwOBA rolling p50	0.287
Observed weight	66%

xwOBA

0.265 0.275 0.287 0.298 0.308

wOBA

0.279 0.292 0.307 0.322 0.335

ISO

0.088 0.100 0.113 0.127 0.138

K%

19.6% 20.7% 21.8% 23.0% 24.0%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%2.3%

15 -26 vs proj

Exit velocity85.3

22

Hard-hit%29.7%

16 -35 vs proj

xBA0.284

16

xSLG0.406

14

xwOBA0.270

19 -50 vs proj

BB%9.2%

58

Bat speed68.4

33

K%22.2%

53

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.1 · 2B

52

Arm Strength83.4 · 2B

19

Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 2B

27

Range Runs-2.5 · 2B

29

Baserunning · percentile strip

Bolts1.0 · 2B

11

SB Success Rate60.0% · 2B

12

Sprint Speed28.0 · 2B

65

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.3% · rebadged research

54

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.4% · rebadged research

22

Correct Decisions64.4% · rebadged research

30

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98

38

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.259 · borderline

94

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample

20

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.234 · validated thin sample

100

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.301 · insufficient sample

92

Resists FastballwOBA 0.365 · validated

13

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated

73

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jake Cronenworth's tools (75) and production (74) are aligned. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-10.7° Current 31° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

191 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.4σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.307

xwOBA (deserved)0.270

Cronenworth’s wOBA sits at 0.307, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.270 — a gap of 0.037, -1.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 436 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Triolo, Jared PIT · R	0.79	Whiff rateAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection
Winn, Masyn STL · R	0.76	Barrel rateStrikeout rate	Player · Projection
Rengifo, Luis MIL · L	0.73	Isolated powerWalk rate	Player · Projection
Gonzales, Nick PIT · R	0.73	Fly-ball rateBarrel rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	3	2026-09-20	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	28	2026-09-24	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.312

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.321 xwOBA \| 13 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 2 E	1-4 \| K
2026-04-17 @ LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-15 vs SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB, K
2026-04-14 vs SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-3
2026-04-11 vs COL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, K, R

Age	32
Height	5' 11"
Weight	187 lb
Debut	2020-07-26

xwOBA Δ	-0.051
wOBA Δ	-0.014

Hitter Projections 20260.321 xwOBA \| 13 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 2 E	1-4 \| K
2026-04-17 @ LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-15 vs SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB, K
2026-04-14 vs SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-3
2026-04-11 vs COL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, K, R

Jake Cronenworth

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail