Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	663	73	144	25	6	.246	.323	.426	.749
2025	663	86	132	36	4	.228	.317	.475	.792
2026	439	57	91	6	3	.255	.387	.359	.746
9 Seasons	3272	416	706	119	27	.248	.335	.429	.764

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16

57

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

57

Defense4 metrics

31

Speed2 metrics

26

Plate skills10 metrics

50

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16

xwOBA preseason	0.328
xwOBA current pace	0.348
xwOBA rolling p50	0.341
Observed weight	67%

xwOBA

0.317 0.329 0.341 0.354 0.365

wOBA

0.323 0.337 0.352 0.367 0.381

ISO

0.103 0.114 0.127 0.139 0.151

K%

19.8% 20.9% 22.1% 23.3% 24.3%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%3.4%

25 -49 vs proj

Exit velocity89.4

66

Hard-hit%39.5%

51 -20 vs proj

xBA0.340

68

xSLG0.512

51

xwOBA0.348

83

BB%17.0%

99 +32 vs proj

Bat speed66.2

13

K%20.6%

61 +25 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-1.2 · LF

16

Arm Strength92.3 · LF

46

Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF

22

Range Runs-0.9 · LF

39

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-4.0 · LF

1

Sprint Speed27.4 · LF

51

SB Success Rate25.0% · LF

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-16

Avoids Bad ChasesST 81.8% · rebadged research

99

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.5% · rebadged research

11

Correct Decisions68.5% · rebadged research

73

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110

89

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · borderline

89

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample

49

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284 · validated thin sample

38

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample

27

Resists FastballwOBA 0.367 · validated

11

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379 · validated

12

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Taylor Ward's tools (84) outpace production (77) by 6 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

193 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.2σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.352

xwOBA (deserved)0.348

Ward’s wOBA sits at 0.352, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.348 — a gap of 0.005, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 446 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
McGonigle, Kevin DET · L	0.59	Max exit velocityxwOBA on contact	Player · Projection
Martin, Austin MIN · R	0.58	In-zone contactBat speed	Player · Projection
Busch, Michael CHC · L	0.56	xwOBA on contactBat speed	Player · Projection
Collins, Isaac KC · L	0.55	Ground-ball rateSprint speed	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	4	2026-07-05	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.334 xwOBA \| 25 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 BB, K, R
2026-04-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, 2 BB
2026-04-17 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 BB, K, R
2026-04-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-5
2026-04-14 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| R, SB

Age	32
Height	6' 0"
Weight	205 lb
Debut	2018-08-14

xwOBA Δ	+0.014
wOBA Δ	+0.018

Hitter Projections 20260.334 xwOBA \| 25 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 BB, K, R
2026-04-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, 2 BB
2026-04-17 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 BB, K, R
2026-04-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-5
2026-04-14 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| R, SB

Taylor Ward

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail