Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	695	91	146	34	3	.240	.329	.459	.788
2025	709	87	170	38	1	.272	.347	.524	.871
2026	700	100	161	43	5	.267	.363	.522	.885
8 Seasons	5016	680	1112	307	23	.255	.344	.517	.861

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

98

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

90

Defense2 metrics

56

Speed2 metrics

4

Plate skills10 metrics

51

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.354
xwOBA current pace	0.402
xwOBA rolling p50	0.391
Observed weight	77%

xwOBA

0.369 0.379 0.391 0.402 0.413

wOBA

0.370 0.381 0.393 0.406 0.417

ISO

0.219 0.231 0.244 0.256 0.268

K%

22.1% 23.0% 24.1% 25.1% 26.0%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%9.7%

98

Exit velocity94.0

99

Hard-hit%56.6%

99

xBA0.395

98

xSLG0.783

98

xwOBA0.402

99

BB%11.5%

85 +26 vs proj

Bat speed73.0

89

K%24.1%

44

Defense · percentile strip

Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B

47

Range Runs1.1 · 1B

65

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-3.9 · 1B

3

Sprint Speed24.9 · 1B

4

SB Success Rate75.0% · 1B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.7% · rebadged research

77

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0% · rebadged research

74

Correct Decisions69.8% · rebadged research

84

Resists FastballwOBA 0.395 · validated

3

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108

86

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.307 · borderline

19

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · insufficient sample

85

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304 · validated thin sample

11

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample

60

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.387 · validated

7

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Pete Alonso's production (76) outpaces the tools grade (74) by 2 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-9.2° Current 29° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.3σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.393

xwOBA (deserved)0.402

Alonso’s wOBA sits at 0.393, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.402 — a gap of 0.008, 0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 723 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Eldridge, Bryce SF · L	0.70	Oppo rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Olson, Matt ATL · L	0.65	Barrel rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Bauers, Jake MIL · L	0.63	Max exit velocityFly-ball rate	Player · Projection
Greene, Riley DET · L	0.62	Oppo rateWalk rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	16	2026-09-25	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	28	2026-09-23	2 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.313

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.364 xwOBA \| 33 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ TB1 HR \| 1 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	3-5 \| HR, RBI, R
2026-05-20 @ TB1 HR \| 2 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, 2 RBI, R
2026-04-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| BB, 2 K
2026-04-17 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HBP, R
2026-04-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 16 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 BB, K, R

Age	31
Height	6' 3"
Weight	245 lb
Debut	2019-03-28

xwOBA Δ	+0.038
wOBA Δ	+0.030

Hitter Projections 20260.364 xwOBA \| 33 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ TB1 HR \| 1 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	3-5 \| HR, RBI, R
2026-05-20 @ TB1 HR \| 2 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, 2 RBI, R
2026-04-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| BB, 2 K
2026-04-17 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HBP, R
2026-04-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 16 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 BB, K, R

Pete Alonso

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail