Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	719	118	177	37	21	.281	.364	.529	.893
2025	651	85	158	17	30	.274	.349	.438	.787
2026	702	88	141	24	10	.226	.311	.404	.715
5 Seasons	2826	403	649	110	72	.259	.338	.464	.802

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

65

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

66

Defense4 metrics

81

Speed4 metrics

56

Plate skills10 metrics

32

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27

xwOBA preseason	0.367
xwOBA current pace	0.322
xwOBA rolling p50	0.332
Observed weight	77%

xwOBA

0.311 0.321 0.332 0.344 0.354

wOBA

0.312 0.322 0.334 0.346 0.357

ISO

0.167 0.178 0.191 0.203 0.214

K%

19.9% 20.8% 21.8% 22.8% 23.7%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%5.1%

55 -30 vs proj

Exit velocity89.3

68

Hard-hit%43.6%

76 -20 vs proj

xBA0.329

63

xSLG0.535

61

xwOBA0.322

70 -26 vs proj

BB%9.6%

65

Bat speed72.2

82

K%22.0%

55

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.3 · SS

82

Arm Strength93.9 · SS

92

Outs Above Avg2.0 · SS

80

Range Runs1.2 · SS

68

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs2.6 · SS

83

Bolts2.0 · SS

26

SB Success Rate77.8% · SS

43

Sprint Speed28.2 · SS

71

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-27

Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.8% · rebadged research

42

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.1% · rebadged research

24

Correct Decisions64.3% · rebadged research

30

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.330 · borderline

6

Resists FastballwOBA 0.304 · validated

96

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96

29

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample

20

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.320 · validated thin sample

3

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.354 · insufficient sample

9

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated

64

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Gunnar Henderson's production (77) outpaces the tools grade (72) by 6 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.5σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.334

xwOBA (deserved)0.322

Henderson’s wOBA sits at 0.334, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.322 — a gap of 0.012, -0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 719 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Young, Jared NYM · L	0.82	Pull rateAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection
Springer, George TOR · R	0.81	Ground-ball rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Realmuto, J.T. PHI · R	0.79	Fly-ball rateAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection
Stott, Bryson PHI · L	0.75	Max exit velocityChase rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	9	2026-09-21	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	29	2026-09-23	10 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.921

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.369 xwOBA \| 24 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| BB, K, R
2026-05-20 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	3-5
2026-04-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 BB, 3 K
2026-04-17 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| 2 K
2026-04-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| K, R, SB

Age	25
Height	6' 3"
Weight	230 lb
Debut	2022-08-31

xwOBA Δ	-0.048
wOBA Δ	-0.035

Hitter Projections 20260.369 xwOBA \| 24 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| BB, K, R
2026-05-20 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	3-5
2026-04-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 BB, 3 K
2026-04-17 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| 2 K
2026-04-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| K, R, SB

Gunnar Henderson

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail