Mithrandir Metrics
Awards 6 races Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Analytics / Awards · projected season outcomes

Award model leaders · preseason + live market.

Preseason column is the season-opening model; Live Market column is current sportsbook consensus from the futures feed.

Races
6
Live bats
134
Live arms
45
Projected awards 6 Cached live leaders 179 Market odds 20260926
Award race

AL MVP

90.6%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Judge, Aaron IL-10 NYY 90.6% ---- -- 99.4%
Raleigh, Cal Frozen preseason award surface SEA 7.0% ---- -- 72.1%
Witt Jr., Bobby Frozen preseason award surface KC 1.0% ---- -- 33.8%
Henderson, Gunnar Frozen preseason award surface BAL 0.5% ---- -- 19.2%
Alonso, Pete Frozen preseason award surface BAL 0.3% ---- -- 13.9%
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir Frozen preseason award surface TOR 0.2% ---- -- 16.0%
Rodríguez, Julio Frozen preseason award surface SEA 0.2% ---- -- 10.3%
Rooker, Brent IL-60 ATH 0.1% ---- -- 9.3%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Yordan Alvarez Current-season tracker HOU 323.1 -2000099.5% 1.032 OPS / 0.456 roll
Pete Alonso Current-season tracker BAL 307.8 ---- 0.885 OPS / 0.393 roll
Ben Rice Current-season tracker NYY 300.5 ---- 0.897 OPS / 0.399 roll
Junior Caminero Current-season tracker TB 299.3 +18005.3% 0.879 OPS / 0.393 roll
Miguel Vargas Current-season tracker CWS 271.2 ---- 0.837 OPS / 0.379 roll
Randy Arozarena Current-season tracker SEA 257.0 ---- 0.862 OPS / 0.402 roll
Luis García Jr. Current-season tracker NYY 253.9 ---- 0.830 OPS / 0.367 roll
Willson Contreras Current-season tracker BOS 248.2 ---- 0.905 OPS / 0.414 roll
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260926.
Award race

NL MVP

63.3%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Soto, Juan Frozen preseason award surface NYM 63.3% ---- -- 90.5%
Schwarber, Kyle Frozen preseason award surface PHI 20.8% ---- -- 58.0%
Lindor, Francisco Frozen preseason award surface NYM 5.3% ---- -- 28.0%
Betts, Mookie Frozen preseason award surface LAD 2.1% ---- -- 15.7%
Olson, Matt Frozen preseason award surface ATL 1.5% ---- -- 11.3%
De La Cruz, Elly Frozen preseason award surface CIN 1.0% ---- -- 8.3%
Contreras, William Frozen preseason award surface MIL 0.9% ---- -- 9.8%
Wood, James Frozen preseason award surface WSH 0.7% ---- -- 6.7%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Pete Crow-Armstrong Current-season tracker CHC 328.0 ---- 0.942 OPS / 0.404 roll
Kyle Schwarber Current-season tracker PHI 297.3 ---- 0.858 OPS / 0.379 roll
Matt Olson Current-season tracker ATL 290.4 ---- 0.829 OPS / 0.373 roll
Hunter Goodman Current-season tracker COL 273.3 ---- 0.832 OPS / 0.384 roll
Cj Abrams Current-season tracker WSH 273.3 ---- 0.838 OPS / 0.379 roll
Brandon Lowe Current-season tracker PIT 269.7 ---- 0.821 OPS / 0.365 roll
Elly De La Cruz Current-season tracker CIN 268.6 ---- 0.888 OPS / 0.410 roll
Sal Stewart Current-season tracker CIN 267.0 ---- 0.796 OPS / 0.372 roll
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260926.
Award race

AL Cy Young

23.2%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Skubal, Tarik Frozen preseason award surface DET 23.2% ---- -- 43.6%
Crochet, Garrett IL-60 BOS 15.3% ---- -- 31.6%
Cease, Dylan IL-15 TOR 7.2% ---- -- 17.2%
Brown, Hunter Frozen preseason award surface HOU 6.4% ---- -- 20.8%
Kirby, George Frozen preseason award surface SEA 5.5% ---- -- 17.7%
Ragans, Cole IL-60 KC 3.5% ---- -- 12.4%
deGrom, Jacob Frozen preseason award surface TEX 3.4% ---- -- 9.7%
Fried, Max Frozen preseason award surface NYY 3.3% ---- -- 11.7%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Cam Schlittler Current-season tracker NYY 224.3 ---- 1.95 ERA / 29.4% K
Dylan Cease IL-15 TOR 199.1 ---- 2.40 ERA / 32.9% K
Drew Rasmussen Current-season tracker TB 182.3 ---- 2.67 ERA / 24.5% K
Parker Messick Current-season tracker CLE 181.1 ---- 2.55 ERA / 25.3% K
Sonny Gray Current-season tracker BOS 173.3 ---- 2.72 ERA / 22.7% K
Gavin Williams Current-season tracker CLE 173.2 ---- 3.76 ERA / 30.8% K
Reid Detmers Current-season tracker LAA 157.0 ---- 3.36 ERA / 28.3% K
Taj Bradley Current-season tracker MIN 153.8 ---- 3.73 ERA / 26.5% K
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260926.
Award race

NL Cy Young

22.0%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Skenes, Paul Frozen preseason award surface PIT 22.0% ---- -- 40.8%
Sánchez, Cristopher Frozen preseason award surface PHI 10.7% ---- -- 26.9%
Wheeler, Zack Frozen preseason award surface PHI 8.8% ---- -- 25.6%
Ohtani, Shohei Frozen preseason award surface LAD 8.4% ---- -- 24.3%
Webb, Logan IL-15 SF 7.0% ---- -- 19.4%
Strider, Spencer IL-60 ATL 4.6% ---- -- 12.6%
Woodruff, Brandon IL-60 MIL 4.0% ---- -- 13.3%
Pivetta, Nick Frozen preseason award surface SD 3.5% ---- -- 10.6%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Jacob Misiorowski Current-season tracker MIL 227.8 -2000099.5% 1.86 ERA / 35.1% K
Cristopher Sánchez Current-season tracker PHI 204.1 ---- 2.91 ERA / 26.1% K
Chris Sale Current-season tracker ATL 195.1 +27003.6% 2.16 ERA / 29.6% K
Jesús Luzardo IL-15 PHI 189.4 ---- 2.87 ERA / 29.2% K
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Current-season tracker LAD 185.1 ---- 2.53 ERA / 26.1% K
Cade Cavalli Current-season tracker WSH 173.3 ---- 3.02 ERA / 25.3% K
Eduardo Rodriguez Current-season tracker AZ 164.4 ---- 2.89 ERA / 18.9% K
Nolan McLean Current-season tracker NYM 163.1 ---- 3.16 ERA / 26.5% K
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260926.
Award race

AL Rookie of the Year

16.4%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Basallo, Samuel IL-10 BAL 16.4% ---- -- 34.3%
Jensen, Carter Frozen preseason award surface KC 10.7% ---- -- 31.3%
Thorpe, Drew Out / inactive CWS 10.6% ---- -- 15.8%
Escarra, J.c. Out / inactive NYY 8.2% ---- -- 24.7%
Williams, Carson Out / inactive TB 7.9% ---- -- 17.2%
Gasper, Mickey Frozen preseason award surface BOS 7.0% ---- -- 15.8%
MacIver, Willie Out / inactive TEX 6.2% ---- -- 17.7%
Feduccia, Hunter Frozen preseason award surface TB 4.9% ---- -- 13.8%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Carter Jensen Current-season tracker KC 236.4 ---- 0.784 OPS / 0.347 roll
Kevin McGonigle Current-season tracker DET 222.7 -1000099.0% 0.801 OPS / 0.374 roll
Chase DeLauter Current-season tracker CLE 206.8 +100001.0% 0.815 OPS / 0.393 roll
Sam Antonacci Current-season tracker CWS 178.5 ---- 0.761 OPS / 0.364 roll
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260926.
Award race

NL Rookie of the Year

14.2%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Johnston, Troy Frozen preseason award surface COL 14.2% ---- -- 23.8%
Hinds, Rece Frozen preseason award surface CIN 7.2% ---- -- 13.8%
Fulford, Braxton Frozen preseason award surface COL 5.6% ---- -- 11.4%
Acosta, Maximo Out / inactive MIA 5.1% ---- -- 12.3%
Dunn, Blake IL-60 CIN 4.0% ---- -- 8.7%
Senger, Hayden Out / inactive NYM 3.6% ---- -- 9.6%
Vivas, Jorbit Frozen preseason award surface WSH 3.5% ---- -- 9.0%
None Out / inactive PHI 3.5% ---- -- 10.7%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Sal Stewart Current-season tracker CIN 267.0 ---- 0.796 OPS / 0.372 roll
Tj Rumfield Current-season tracker COL 218.3 ---- 0.841 OPS / 0.389 roll
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260926.