Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Cease, Dylan

Bat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape

Primary
28.0% K%
Range
23.7% to 35.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 31 Status IL-15
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace3.05
ERA rolling p503.53
Observed weight54%
ERA
2.30 2.88 3.53 4.18 4.77
FIP
2.00 2.46 2.97 3.48 3.94
K%
28.4% 30.1% 31.9% 33.7% 35.3%
BB%
7.8% 8.6% 9.4% 10.3% 11.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.0%
33
Barrel allowed5.4%
78 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo97.5
92
Hard-hit allowed37.2%
64
K%34.9%
98
Whiff%33.6%
97
xwOBA allowed0.280
79 +23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+105
77
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cease, Dylan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2722026-05-19: 0.2722026-05-21: 0.2762026-05-23: 0.2762026-05-24: 0.2762026-05-25: 0.2752026-05-26: 0.2752026-05-28: 0.2752026-05-29: 0.2802026-05-30: 0.2802026-05-31: 0.2802026-06-01: 0.280 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cease, Dylan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 34%34%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cease, Dylan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.5%Slider: 29.4%Changeup: 11.3%Sinker: 10.1%Knuckle Curve: 9.0%Sweeper: 5.7% MIX FF 34%SL 29%CH 11%SI 10%KC 9%ST 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cease, Dylan · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 0.8FFSL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.6SLCH: HB -0.7, IVB 1.9CHSI: HB 0.2, IVB 1.3SIKC: HB 0.1, IVB 4.5KCST: HB -0.6, IVB 4.0ST horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.2% 378 110 qualified
SL 34.8% 374 105 qualified
CH 11.3% 121 96 limited sample
SI 9.7% 104 96 limited sample
CB 9.0% 97 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Slider 41%, Knuckle Curve 8%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.71
K% Δ+0.068
Sample66.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.9----
Batters Faced623----
K%28.0%23.7% to 35.9%+/- 6.1%
BB%9.1%6.8% to 11.5%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%29.5%26.7% to 35.2%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.200.58 to 1.87+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3060.256 to 0.336+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.6% to 11.7%+/- 3.0%
ERA3.762.55 to 6.03+/- 1.74
FIP3.482.47 to 5.21+/- 1.37
WHIP1.2511.006 to 1.551+/- 0.272
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2265 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%25.6%
BB%9.8%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

2298 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%28.4%
BB%8.2%
Barrel7.9%