Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Cease, Dylan

Bat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape

Primary
28.0% K%
Range
23.7% to 35.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
76
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
83
Arsenal6 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace2.56
ERA rolling p503.11
Observed weight64%
ERA
1.84 2.44 3.11 3.79 4.39
FIP
1.66 2.14 2.67 3.20 3.67
K%
30.5% 31.9% 33.4% 35.0% 36.3%
BB%
8.6% 9.3% 10.1% 10.9% 11.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.13
77
ERA2.56
86
BB%10.8%
25 -17 vs proj
K%36.3%
99
xwOBA allowed0.264
92 +35 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.1%
91 +53 vs proj
Fastball velo97.4
91
Hard-hit allowed33.2%
85
Whiff%32.7%
97
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+110
95
Mithrandir Stuff+105
80
Slider Stuff+105
77
Changeup Stuff+95
13
Curveball Stuff+103
70
Sinker Stuff+95
12
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cease, Dylan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.264 2026-07-05: 0.2662026-07-06: 0.2662026-07-07: 0.2662026-07-08: 0.2662026-07-09: 0.2662026-07-10: 0.2642026-07-11: 0.2642026-07-12: 0.2642026-07-13: 0.2642026-07-14: 0.2642026-07-15: 0.2642026-07-16: 0.264 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cease, Dylan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cease, Dylan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.7%Slider: 29.0%Changeup: 11.5%Sinker: 9.7%Knuckle Curve: 9.5%Sweeper: 4.6% FF36% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 36%SL 29%CH 12%SI 10%KC 9%ST 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cease, Dylan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 36% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 97.7 mphFF98 mphSlider: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.3 mphSL89 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 83.5 mphCH83 mphSinker: 10% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.3 mphSI96 mphKnuckle Curve: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 82.6 mphKC83 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 84.2 mphST84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.2% 417 110 qualified
SL 35.2% 417 105 qualified
CH 10.6% 126 95 limited sample
SI 9.7% 115 95 limited sample
CB 9.2% 109 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Slider 41%, Knuckle Curve 8%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.20
K% Δ+0.083
Sample102.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings147.2----
Batters Faced628----
K%28.0%23.7% to 35.9%+/- 6.1%
BB%9.1%6.8% to 11.5%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%29.5%26.7% to 35.2%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.200.58 to 1.87+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3060.256 to 0.336+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.6% to 11.7%+/- 3.0%
ERA3.762.55 to 6.03+/- 1.74
FIP3.482.47 to 5.21+/- 1.37
WHIP1.2511.006 to 1.551+/- 0.272
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2265 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%25.6%
BB%9.8%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

2298 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%28.4%
BB%8.2%
Barrel7.9%