Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Ragans, Cole

Bat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape

Primary
28.3% K%
Range
23.3% to 34.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 29 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
33
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal6 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.74
ERA current pace4.84
ERA rolling p504.23
Observed weight44%
ERA
3.25 3.71 4.23 4.75 5.21
FIP
3.56 3.88 4.24 4.60 4.93
K%
26.2% 27.9% 29.7% 31.6% 33.3%
BB%
9.3% 10.2% 11.2% 12.2% 13.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.52
16
ERA4.84
29
BB%14.1%
7 -35 vs proj
K%30.4%
94
xwOBA allowed0.344
22 -48 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.4%
6 -38 vs proj
Fastball velo94.9
58
Hard-hit allowed41.0%
37
Whiff%28.6%
86
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+100
36
Mithrandir Stuff+99
26
Changeup Stuff+106
75
Curveball Stuff+101
35
Cutter Stuff+106
88
Slider Stuff+86
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ragans, Cole · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.344 2026-07-05: 0.3442026-07-06: 0.3442026-07-07: 0.3442026-07-08: 0.3442026-07-09: 0.3442026-07-10: 0.3442026-07-11: 0.3442026-07-12: 0.3442026-07-13: 0.3442026-07-14: 0.3442026-07-15: 0.3442026-07-16: 0.344 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ragans, Cole · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ragans, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 56.3%Changeup: 16.9%Slider: 13.8%Knuckle Curve: 8.1%Cutter: 4.7%Unknown: 0.1% FF56% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 56%CH 17%SL 14%KC 8%FC 5%UN 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ragans, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 24″48″72″96″ 4-Seam Fastball: 56% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 94.9 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 84.1 mphCH84 mphSlider: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.1 mphSL85 mphKnuckle Curve: 8% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 79.1 mphKC79 mphCutter: 5% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.7 mphFC90 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 87″ drop, 60.5 mphUN60 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 56.0% 357 100 qualified
CH 16.5% 105 106 limited sample
SL 13.3% 85 86 limited sample
CB 8.5% 54 101 limited sample
FC 5.7% 36 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Changeup 19%, Slider 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.26
K% Δ+0.021
Sample42.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings141.1----
Batters Faced597----
K%28.3%23.3% to 34.1%+/- 5.4%
BB%9.2%6.5% to 11.1%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%27.7%24.7% to 32.9%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.200.74 to 1.74+/- 0.50
xwOBA Against0.2920.250 to 0.320+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.7% to 11.1%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.582.62 to 5.38+/- 1.38
FIP3.402.20 to 4.12+/- 0.96
WHIP1.2081.051 to 1.532+/- 0.240
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

413 career BF

xwOBA0.259
K%24.4%
BB%8.7%
Barrel5.0%
vs RHH

1345 career BF

xwOBA0.255
K%28.5%
BB%8.3%
Barrel8.0%