Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-36 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Altuve, Jose
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 36
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.310 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.314 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.312 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.285
0.298
0.312
0.326
0.339
wOBA
0.298
0.319
0.341
0.364
0.384
ISO
0.109
0.127
0.147
0.166
0.184
K%
16.3%
17.7%
19.1%
20.6%
21.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.5%
61
+20 vs proj
Barrel%4.0%
35
Bat speed66.2
14
Exit velocity85.7
19
Hard-hit%38.5%
44
+24 vs proj
K%20.5%
59
-23 vs proj
xBA0.322
47
xSLG0.478
40
xwOBA0.314
55
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength76.9 · 2B
2
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 2B
15
Range Runs-1.4 · 2B
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · 2B
21
Bolts6.0 · 2B
62
Sprint Speed27.9 · 2B
67
SB Success Rate50.0% · 2B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.0% · rebadged research
38
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.9% · rebadged research
53
Correct Decisions63.5% · rebadged research
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.301 · borderline
19
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
36
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.262 · validated thin sample
85
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
84
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356 · validated
21
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
72
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
40
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
138 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.033 |
| Sample | 200 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 607 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 22 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.308 | 0.291 to 0.360 | +/- 0.035 |
| ISO | 0.171 | 0.111 to 0.245 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 3.2% to 6.5% | +/- 1.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.1% | 28.6% to 39.1% | +/- 5.2% |
| K% | 16.1% | 14.6% to 22.9% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 5.8% to 11.1% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.305 | 0.288 to 0.357 | +/- 0.035 |
vs LHP
1843 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 4.9% |
vs RHP
5212 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 15.0% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |