Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-36 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Altuve, Jose
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 36
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
29
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.310 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.287 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.296 |
| Observed weight | 60% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.284
0.296
0.309
0.320
wOBA
0.300
0.316
0.333
0.351
0.366
ISO
0.133
0.148
0.164
0.180
0.195
K%
18.5%
19.6%
20.9%
22.2%
23.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
37
Exit velocity85.2
19
Hard-hit%34.7%
30
xBA0.304
29
xSLG0.456
30
xwOBA0.287
29
-21 vs proj
BB%8.7%
52
Bat speed65.3
7
K%22.9%
46
-37 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength76.9 · 2B
1
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 2B
7
Range Runs-3.6 · 2B
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · 2B
8
Bolts8.0 · 2B
64
Sprint Speed27.5 · 2B
53
SB Success Rate66.7% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.3% · rebadged research
38
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1% · rebadged research
51
Correct Decisions63.6% · rebadged research
25
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
40
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
28
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
28
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
85
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
40
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353 · validated
23
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
80
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
160 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.021 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.025 |
| Sample | 332 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 607 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 22 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.308 | 0.291 to 0.360 | +/- 0.035 |
| ISO | 0.171 | 0.111 to 0.245 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 3.2% to 6.5% | +/- 1.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.1% | 28.6% to 39.1% | +/- 5.2% |
| K% | 16.1% | 14.6% to 22.9% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 5.8% to 11.1% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.305 | 0.288 to 0.357 | +/- 0.035 |
vs LHP
1843 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 4.9% |
vs RHP
5212 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 15.0% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |